Economics

This study examines the influence of learning in a female teacher homeroom class in elementary school on pupils' voting behavior later in life, using independently collected individual-level data. Further, we evaluate its effect on preference for women's participation in the workplace in adulthood. Our study found that having a female teacher in the first year of school makes individuals more likely to vote for female candidates, and to prefer policy for female labor participation in adulthood. However, the effect is only observed among males, and not female pupils. These findings offer new evidence for the female socialization hypothesis.

Governments have used social distancing to stem the spread of COVID-19, but lack evidence on the most effective policy to ensure compliance. We examine the effectiveness of fines and informational messages (nudges) in promoting social distancing in a web-based interactive experiment conducted during the pandemic on a near-representative sample of the US population. Fines significantly promote distancing, but nudges only have a marginal impact. Political ideology also has a causal impact - progressives are more likely to practice distancing, and are marginally more responsive to fines. Further, individuals do more social distancing when they know they may be a superspreader. Our results highlight the role of web-based interactive experiments in informing governments on the causal impact of policies at a time when lab and/or field-based experimental research is not feasible.

Among industrialized countries, U.S. holds two somehow inglorious records: the highest rate of fatal police shootings and the highest rate of deaths related to firearms. The latter has been associated with strong diffusion of firearms ownership largely due to loose legislation in several member states. The present paper investigates the relation between firearms legislation\diffusion and the number of fatal police shooting episodes using a seven-year panel dataset. While our results confirm the negative impact of stricter firearms regulations found in previous cross-sectional studies, we find that the diffusion of guns ownership has no statistically significant effect. Furthermore, regulations pertaining to the sphere of gun owner accountability seem to be the most effective in reducing fatal police shootings.

This paper investigates the contribution of business model innovations in improvement of food supply chains. Through a systematic literature review, the notable business model innovations in the food industry are identified, surveyed, and evaluated. Findings reveal that the innovations in value proposition, value creation processes, and value delivery processes of business models are the successful strategies proposed in food industry. It is further disclosed that rural female entrepreneurs, social movements, and also urban conditions are the most important driving forces inducing the farmers to reconsider their business models. In addition, the new technologies and environmental factors are the secondary contributors in business model innovation for the food processors. It is concluded that digitalization has disruptively changed the food distributors models. E-commerce models and internet of things are reported as the essential factors imposing the retailers to innovate their business models. Furthermore, the consumption demand and the product quality are two main factors affecting the business models of all the firms operating in the food supply chain regardless of their positions in the chain. The findings of the current study provide an insight into the food industry to design a sustainable business model to bridge the gap between food supply and food demand.

Credit scoring is an essential tool used by global financial institutions and credit lenders for financial decision making. In this paper, we introduce a new method based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) to forecast the probability of default for individual loan applicants. Clustering similar customers with each other, our model associates a probability of being healthy to each group. In addition, our GMM-based model probabilistically associates individual samples to clusters, and then estimates the probability of default for each individual based on how it relates to GMM clusters. We provide applications for risk managers and decision makers in banks and non-bank financial institutions to maximize profit and mitigate the expected loss by giving loans to those who have a probability of default below a decision threshold. Our model has a number of advantages. First, it gives a probabilistic view of credit standing for each individual applicant instead of a binary classification and therefore provides more information for financial decision makers. Second, the expected loss on the train set calculated by our GMM-based default probabilities is very close to the actual loss, and third, our approach is computationally efficient.

This paper presents the way in which can be determined the exchange rates that simultaneously balance the trade balances of all countries that trade with each other within a common market. A mathematical synthesis between the theory of comparative advantages of Ricardo and Mill and the New Theory on International Trade of Paul Krugman is also presented in this paper. This mathematical synthesis shows that these theories are complementary. Also presented in this paper is a proposal to organize a common market of the American hemisphere. This economic alliance would allow to establish a political alliance for the common defense of the entire American hemisphere. The formula we developed in this paper to determine the exchange rates of the countries solves the problem that Mexico, Canada, Europe, Japan and China currently experience with the United States in relation to the deficits and surpluses in the trade balance of the countries and their consequent impediment so that stable growth of international trade can be achieved.

We study a portfolio management problem featuring many-player and mean-field competition, investment and consumption, and relative performance concerns under the forward performance processes (FPP) framework. We focus on agents using power (CRRA) type FPPs for their investment-consumption optimization problem an under common noise Merton market model and we solve both the many-player and mean-field game providing closed-form expressions for the solutions where the limit of the former yields the latter. In our case, the FPP framework yields a continuum of solutions for the consumption component as indexed to a market parameter we coin "market consumption intensity". The parameter permits the agent to set a preference for their consumption going forward in time that, in the competition case, reflects a common market behaviour. We show the FPP framework, under both competition and no-competition, allows the agent to disentangle his risk-tolerance and elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) just like Epstein-Zin preferences under recursive utility framework and unlike the classical utility theory one. This, in turn, allows a finer analysis on the agent's consumption "income" and "substitution" regimes, and, of independent interest, motivates a new strand of economics research on EIS under the FPP framework. We find that competition rescales the agent's perception of consumption in a non-trivial manner in addition to a time-dependent "elasticity of conformity" of the agent to the market's consumption intensity.

A planner aims to target individuals who exceed a threshold in a characteristic, such as wealth or ability. The individuals can rank their friends according to the characteristic. We study a strategy-proof mechanism for the planner to use the rankings for targeting. We discuss how the mechanism works in practice, when the rankings may contain errors.

We estimate the effect of the Coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic on racial animus, as measured by Google searches and Twitter posts including a commonly used anti-Asian racial slur. Our empirical strategy exploits the plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of the first Covid-19 diagnosis across regions in the United States. We find that the first local diagnosis leads to an immediate increase in racist Google searches and Twitter posts, with the latter mainly coming from existing Twitter users posting the slur for the first time. This increase could indicate a rise in future hate crimes, as we document a strong correlation between the use of the slur and anti-Asian hate crimes using historic data. Moreover, we find that the rise in the animosity is directed at Asians rather than other minority groups and is stronger on days when the connection between the disease and Asians is more salient, as proxied by President Trump's tweets mentioning China and Covid-19 at the same time. In contrast, the negative economic impact of the pandemic plays little role in the initial increase in racial animus. Our results suggest that de-emphasizing the connection between the disease and a particular racial group can be effective in curbing current and future racial animus.

Men and women systematically differ in their beliefs about their performance relative to others; in particular, men tend to be more overconfident. This paper provides support for one explanation for gender differences in overconfidence, performance-motivated reasoning, in which people distort how they process new information in ways that make them believe they outperformed others. Using a large online experiment, I find that male subjects distort information processing in ways that favor their performance, while female subjects do not systematically distort information processing in either direction. These statistically-significant gender differences in performance-motivated reasoning mimic gender differences in overconfidence; beliefs of male subjects are systematically overconfident, while beliefs of female subjects are well-calibrated on average. The experiment also includes political questions, and finds that politically-motivated reasoning is similar for both men and women. These results suggest that, while men and women are both susceptible to motivated reasoning in general, men find it particularly attractive to believe that they outperformed others.