Mathematics

This paper is a survey of recent contributions on estimation in stochastic differential equations with mixed-effects. These models involve N stochastic differential equations with common drift and diffusion functions but random parameters that allow for differences between processes. The main objective is to estimate the distribution of the random effects and possibly other fixed parameters that are common to the N processes. While many algorithms have been proposed, the theoretical aspects related to estimation have been little studied. This review article focuses only on theoretical inference for stochastic differential equations with mixed-effects. It has so far only been considered in some very specific classes of mixed-effect diffusion models, observed without measurement error, where explicit estimators can be defined. Within this framework, the asymptotic properties of several estimators, either parametric or nonparametric, are discussed. Different schemes of observations are considered according to the approach, associating a large number of individuals with, in most cases, high-frequency observations of the trajectories.

We provide a short proof that the Wasserstein distance between the empirical measure of a n-sample and the estimated measure is of order n^-(1/d), if the measure has a lower and upper bounded density on the d-dimensional flat torus.

An important problem in large scale inference is the identification of variables that have large correlations or partial correlations. Recent work has yielded breakthroughs in the ultra-high dimensional setting when the sample size n is fixed and the dimension p?��? ([Hero, Rajaratnam 2011, 2012]). Despite these advances, the correlation screening framework suffers from some serious practical, methodological and theoretical deficiencies. For instance, theoretical safeguards for partial correlation screening requires that the population covariance matrix be block diagonal. This block sparsity assumption is however highly restrictive in numerous practical applications. As a second example, results for correlation and partial correlation screening framework requires the estimation of dependence measures or functionals, which can be highly prohibitive computationally. In this paper, we propose a unifying approach to correlation and partial correlation mining which specifically goes beyond the block diagonal correlation structure, thus yielding a methodology that is suitable for modern applications. By making connections to random geometric graphs, the number of highly correlated or partial correlated variables are shown to have novel compound Poisson finite-sample characterizations, which hold for both the finite p case and when p?��? . The unifying framework also demonstrates an important duality between correlation and partial correlation screening with important theoretical and practical consequences.

In the context of estimating stochastically ordered distribution functions, the pool-adjacent-violators algorithm (PAVA) can be modified such that the computation times are reduced substantially. This is achieved by studying the dependence of antitonic weighted least squares fits on the response vector to be approximated.

We consider stochastic bandit problems with K arms, each associated with a bounded distribution supported on the range [m,M] . We do not assume that the range [m,M] is known and show that there is a cost for learning this range. Indeed, a new trade-off between distribution-dependent and distribution-free regret bounds arises, which prevents from simultaneously achieving the typical lnT and \smash{ T − − √ } bounds. For instance, a \smash{ T − − √ } distribution-free regret bound may only be achieved if the distribution-dependent regret bounds are at least of order \smash{ T − − √ }. We exhibit a strategy achieving the rates for regret indicated by the new trade-off.

This paper considers adaptive estimation of quadratic functionals in the nonparametric instrumental variables (NPIV) models. Minimax estimation of a quadratic functional of a NPIV is an important problem in optimal estimation of a nonlinear functional of an ill-posed inverse regression with an unknown operator using one random sample. We first show that a leave-one-out, sieve NPIV estimator of the quadratic functional proposed by \cite{BC2020} attains a convergence rate that coincides with the lower bound previously derived by \cite{ChenChristensen2017}. The minimax rate is achieved by the optimal choice of a key tuning parameter (sieve dimension) that depends on unknown NPIV model features. We next propose a data driven choice of the tuning parameter based on Lepski's method. The adaptive estimator attains the minimax optimal rate in the severely ill-posed case and in the regular, mildly ill-posed case, but up to a multiplicative logn ??????????in the irregular, mildly ill-posed case.

Several novel statistical methods have been developed to estimate large integrated volatility matrices based on high-frequency financial data. To investigate their asymptotic behaviors, they require a sub-Gaussian or finite high-order moment assumption for observed log-returns, which cannot account for the heavy tail phenomenon of stock returns. Recently, a robust estimator was developed to handle heavy-tailed distributions with some bounded fourth-moment assumption. However, we often observe that log-returns have heavier tail distribution than the finite fourth-moment and that the degrees of heaviness of tails are heterogeneous over the asset and time period. In this paper, to deal with the heterogeneous heavy-tailed distributions, we develop an adaptive robust integrated volatility estimator that employs pre-averaging and truncation schemes based on jump-diffusion processes. We call this an adaptive robust pre-averaging realized volatility (ARP) estimator. We show that the ARP estimator has a sub-Weibull tail concentration with only finite 2 α -th moments for any α>1 . In addition, we establish matching upper and lower bounds to show that the ARP estimation procedure is optimal. To estimate large integrated volatility matrices using the approximate factor model, the ARP estimator is further regularized using the principal orthogonal complement thresholding (POET) method. The numerical study is conducted to check the finite sample performance of the ARP estimator.

The current work is motivated by the need for robust statistical methods for precision medicine; as such, we address the need for statistical methods that provide actionable inference for a single unit at any point in time. We aim to learn an optimal, unknown choice of the controlled components of the design in order to optimize the expected outcome; with that, we adapt the randomization mechanism for future time-point experiments based on the data collected on the individual over time. Our results demonstrate that one can learn the optimal rule based on a single sample, and thereby adjust the design at any point t with valid inference for the mean target parameter. This work provides several contributions to the field of statistical precision medicine. First, we define a general class of averages of conditional causal parameters defined by the current context for the single unit time-series data. We define a nonparametric model for the probability distribution of the time-series under few assumptions, and aim to fully utilize the sequential randomization in the estimation procedure via the double robust structure of the efficient influence curve of the proposed target parameter. We present multiple exploration-exploitation strategies for assigning treatment, and methods for estimating the optimal rule. Lastly, we present the study of the data-adaptive inference on the mean under the optimal treatment rule, where the target parameter adapts over time in response to the observed context of the individual. Our target parameter is pathwise differentiable with an efficient influence function that is doubly robust - which makes it easier to estimate than previously proposed variations. We characterize the limit distribution of our estimator under a Donsker condition expressed in terms of a notion of bracketing entropy adapted to martingale settings.

We deal with parametric estimation for a parabolic linear second order stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) with a small dispersion parameter based on high frequency data which are observed in time and space. By using the thinned data with respect to space obtained from the high frequency data, the minimum contrast estimators of two coefficient parameters of the SPDE are proposed. With these estimators and the thinned data with respect to time obtained from the high frequency data, we construct an approximation of the coordinate process of the SPDE. Using the approximate coordinate process, we obtain the adaptive estimator of a coefficient parameter of the SPDE. Moreover, we give simulation results of the proposed estimators of the SPDE.

Given observations from a circular random variable contaminated by an additive measurement error, we consider the problem of minimax optimal goodness-of-fit testing in a non-asymptotic framework. We propose direct and indirect testing procedures using a projection approach. The structure of the optimal tests depends on regularity and ill-posedness parameters of the model, which are unknown in practice. Therefore, adaptive testing strategies that perform optimally over a wide range of regularity and ill-posedness classes simultaneously are investigated. Considering a multiple testing procedure, we obtain adaptive i.e. assumption-free procedures and analyse their performance. Compared with the non-adaptive tests, their radii of testing face a deterioration by a log-factor. We show that for testing of uniformity this loss is unavoidable by providing a lower bound. The results are illustrated considering Sobolev spaces and ordinary or super smooth error densities.