An attempt to physical science basis of climate changes in early Seventeenth century and the influence the Little Ice Age in south Italy
V. Carbone, L. Parisoli, R. Cirino, T. Alberti, F. Lepreti, A. Vecchio
aa r X i v : . [ phy s i c s . h i s t - ph ] J a n An attempt to physical science basis of climatechanges in early Seventeenth century and theinfluence of the Little Ice Age in south Italy
V. Carbone , L. Parisoli , R. Cirino , T. Alberti , F. Lepreti , andA. Vecchio Dipartimento di Fisica, Universit´a della Calabria, Ponte P. BucciCubo 31C, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy Dipartimento di Studi Umanistici, Universit´a della Calabria,Ponte P. Bucci Cubo 28B, 87036 Rende (CS), Italy LESIA–Observatoire de Paris, 5 place Jules Janssen, 92190Meudon, FranceAugust 7, 2018
The colder epoch of the Little Ice Age (LIA), defined as Late Antique LIAroughly lasting from 1536 up to 16601, has been characterized by a period ofextreme cooling [1, 2, 3]. Apart for reconstruction of temperature from usualice cores [4], the effects of LIA are evidenced by looking at localized proxy data,as the late grape harvests in France [5, 6], the slowing of tree rings growth [1, 7]and progress of glaciers [8]. Since a better geographical coverage with high-resolution and precisely dated reconstructions are presently not available, thesynchrony and global significance of LIA has been questioned [9, 10, 11, 12].In 1615 Paolo A. Foscarini, a Carmelite monk lived in a monastery of southItaly near Cosenza (Calabria), published a
Trattato [13] which, at variance towhat was common at the time, has not been written in Latin, but in volgare , theancient Italian language. Foscarini is well known as the author of a Epistle indefense of G. Galilei and the Copernican cosmology [14], addressing the commonscriptural objections to the new system of the world. His work was banned in1616 by the Roman Inquisition, few months before his death. As a consequence,the
Trattato remained completely forgotten and their content unexploited, untilit has been recently rediscovered in the archives [13].We are currently investigating the
Trattato , and we found strong evidencesthat it represents, to our knowledge, the first systematic attempt to interpretsomething unknown at that time, as meteo–climate changes and their fore-casting, in the scientific framework of environmental physical effects related toSun-Atmosphere relationships. 1he intention of Foscarini is clearly evidenced in some sentences of the
Proemio (Introduction) of the
Trattato [13]. For example, on page 4 he states:
Rimane in ogni modo che qui solo si tratti delle Predittioni, & Antivedimentidelle mutationi de’ Tempi, che si causano dalla Causa Materiale, che sono lemere Naturali. [. . . ] Noi in questo libro ci prenderemo carrico, che appartieneal Filosofo Naturale, di poter predire e presagire alcuna cosa sopra la Muta-tione de’ Tempi; dovendo coincidentemente anco trattare, com’egli possa di piprevedere altre cose oltre le Mutationi de’ Tempi, naturalmente, per la necessariaconnessione, che hanno le Cause naturali con i loro Effetti.
The sentence can be translated as:
Here we discuss forecasting and prevision of ”weather changes”, which aredue to Material Causes, which are just Natural Changes. [. . . ] In this book,we will undertake something which is in charge of the Natural Philosophe, topredict and foretell something about the weather changes; having to also dealingsomething else apart for weather changes, due to the natural connection whichnatural causes have with their effects.
It is evident that Foscarini, which qualifies themselves as a
Natural Philosophe ,is aimed to investigate weather changes, or, said differently meteo–climatic fluc-tuations, starting from the hypothesis that they represents natural effects ofsome environmental changes. In this way, starting from the knowledge of thenature of changes, the author can undertake also additional predictions. Theseconcern social and economical effects of weather and climate changes. This iswell stated in another sentence [13], on page 5, where the author define theutility of the
Trattato : [. . . ] si s´a il quanto importi il prevedere, e prevenire gli accidenti che possonooccorrere nella vita humana, per la varia, e sempre instabile vicissitudine, emutatione de’ tempi, e delle stagioni, della quale sogliono sovente venire millepericoli, e mille disturbi. The sentence means: [. . . ] it is well known how important is to predict and prevent the accidentsthat may occur in human life due to the constant instability of weather and sea-sonal changes, from which they often derive a thousand dangers and disorders.
Social and economic effects, due to extremely cold climate, at that time weresuperstitiously interpreted, and superstition has started the witch–hunting, be-cause, superstitiously, witches where considered as the cause of all consequencesof dangers and disorders caused by climate changes [15]. The starting hypothe-sis of Foscarini, on the contrary, is to avoid superstitious explanation of changesas well as their consequences, as he clearly stated [13] in the question posed onpage 18:
Se delle cose apparenti nel Sole, nella Luna e nelle Stelle, oltre il presagiodella mutazione de’ tempi, si possano cavare altre naturali predittioni, standone i termini della natura, e senza superstitione.
This sentence represents one of the eight question that Foscarini asks himselfas a working hypothesis of the book, namely: [I would like to understand . . . ] if from appearances in the Sun, the moonand stars, apart for the omens of weather changes, we can get further natural redictions, within natural phenomena, without resorting to superstitious causes. The
Trattato contains, hidden in the Italian language of early seventeenthcentury and without the aid of a mathematical apparatus, the first historicalattempt to naively investigate statistical forecasting of meteo–climatic fluctua-tions in the framework of complex systems. A detailed systematic analysis ofthe
Trattato , in this perspective, will be reported in a forthcoming paper.To conclude, interestingly, we found some sentences which represent indi-rect evidences of the influence of LIA in south Mediterranean regions. As anexample, on pages 221 of the
Trattato , Foscarini states [13]:
Se dop´o la vindemmia, innanzi il tramontare delle Pleiadi piover´a, la ricoltasenz’altro sar´a per tempo: Se piover´a dopo il tramontare delle Pleiadi, sar´atarda: Ma se piover´a insieme con il loro tramontare, sar´a mediocre, e giusta[. . . ] Le Pleiadi [... . . ] a cinque di Novembre tramontano.
The sentence can be translated as:
When after the grape harvest, it will rains before the set of Pleiadi, theharvest will be in time: When the rain will be after the set of Pleiadi, theharvest will be late: But in case the rain will happen together with their set, theharvest will be moderate and in time [. . . ] The Pleiadi [. . . ] set on November,5.
To be reliable, the above sentence indicates that, roughly speaking, the dateof grape harvest and the set of Pleiadi must be not too far. Since actuallyin Calabria the grape harvest happens in early September, the sentence repre-sents an evidence of a late grape harvest, on average, in south Italy betweenthe sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. Evidently, at that time, the climate inCalabria must have been colder than the actual climate, thus indirectly confirm-ing the influence of LIA in the south Mediterranean region. Databases of grapeharvest dates in France [5], shows that, in the period 1550–1618, the harvestswere delayed on average near the middle of October, roughly in agreement withthe observation of P.A. Foscarini for south Italy.