Quantitative Biology

The "mind-brain supervenience" conjecture suggests that all mental properties are derived from the physical properties of the brain. To address the question of whether the mind supervenes on the brain, we frame a supervenience hypothesis in rigorous statistical terms. Specifically, we propose a modified version of supervenience (called epsilon-supervenience) that is amenable to experimental investigation and statistical analysis. To illustrate this approach, we perform a thought experiment that illustrates how the probabilistic theory of pattern recognition can be used to make a one-sided determination of epsilon-supervenience. The physical property of the brain employed in this analysis is the graph describing brain connectivity (i.e., the brain-graph or connectome). epsilon-supervenience allows us to determine whether a particular mental property can be inferred from one's connectome to within any given positive misclassification rate, regardless of the relationship between the two. This may provide motivation for cross-disciplinary research between neuroscientists and statisticians.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus caused the novel coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) affecting the whole world. Like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV, SARS-CoV-2 are thought to originate in bats and then spread to humans through intermediate hosts. Identifying intermediate host species is critical to understanding the evolution and transmission mechanisms of COVID-19. However, determining which animals are intermediate hosts remains a key challenge. Virus host-genome similarity (HGS) is an important factor that reflects the adaptability of virus to host. SARS-CoV-2 may retain beneficial mutations to increase HGS and evade the host immune system. This study investigated the HGSs between 399 SARS-CoV-2 strains and 10 hosts of different species, including bat, mouse, cat, swine, snake, dog, pangolin, chicken, human and monkey. The results showed that the HGS between SARS-CoV-2 and bat was the highest, followed by mouse and cat. Human and monkey had the lowest HGS values. In terms of genetic similarity, mouse and monkey are halfway between bat and human. Moreover, given that COVID-19 outbreaks tend to be associated with live poultry and seafood markets, mouse and cat are more likely sources of infection in these places. However, more experimental data are needed to confirm whether mouse and cat are true intermediate hosts. These findings suggest that animals closely related to human life, especially those with high HGS, need to be closely monitored.

Yes.

BACKGROUND An alternative to epidemiological models for transmission dynamics of Covid-19 in China, we propose the artificial intelligence (AI)-inspired methods for real-time forecasting of Covid-19 to estimate the size, lengths and ending time of Covid-19 across China. METHODS We developed a modified stacked auto-encoder for modeling the transmission dynamics of the epidemics. We applied this model to real-time forecasting the confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China. The data were collected from January 11 to February 27, 2020 by WHO. We used the latent variables in the auto-encoder and clustering algorithms to group the provinces/cities for investigating the transmission structure. RESULTS We forecasted curves of cumulative confirmed cases of Covid-19 across China from Jan 20, 2020 to April 20, 2020. Using the multiple-step forecasting, the estimated average errors of 6-step, 7-step, 8-step, 9-step and 10-step forecasting were 1.64%, 2.27%, 2.14%, 2.08%, 0.73%, respectively. We predicted that the time points of the provinces/cities entering the plateau of the forecasted transmission dynamic curves varied, ranging from Jan 21 to April 19, 2020. The 34 provinces/cities were grouped into 9 clusters. CONCLUSIONS The accuracy of the AI-based methods for forecasting the trajectory of Covid-19 was high. We predicted that the epidemics of Covid-19 will be over by the middle of April. If the data are reliable and there are no second transmissions, we can accurately forecast the transmission dynamics of the Covid-19 across the provinces/cities in China. The AI-inspired methods are a powerful tool for helping public health planning and policymaking.

COVID-19 outbreak has rapidly evolved into a global pandemic. The impact of COVID-19 on patient journeys in oncology represents a new risk to interpretation of trial results and its broad applicability for future clinical practice. We identify key intercurrent events that may occur due to COVID-19 in oncology clinical trials with a focus on time-to-event endpoints and discuss considerations pertaining to the other estimand attributes introduced in the ICH E9 addendum. We propose strategies to handle COVID-19 related intercurrent events, depending on their relationship with malignancy and treatment and the interpretability of data after them. We argue that the clinical trial objective from a world without COVID-19 pandemic remains valid. The estimand framework provides a common language to discuss the impact of COVID-19 in a structured and transparent manner. This demonstrates that the applicability of the framework may even go beyond what it was initially intended for.

The mechanisms underlying major aspects of the human brain remain a mystery. It is unknown how verbal episodic memory is formed and integrated with sensory episodic memory. There is no consensus on the function and nature of dreaming. Here we present a theory for governing neural activity in the human brain. The theory describes the mechanisms for building memory traces for entities and explains how verbal memory is integrated with sensory memory. We infer that a core function of dreaming is to move charged particles such as calcium ions from the hippocampus to association areas to primary areas. We link a high level of calcium ions concentrations to Alzheimer's disease. We present a more precise definition of consciousness. Our results are a step forward in understanding the function and health of the human brain and provide the public with ways to keep a healthy brain.

The most cost-effective blood-based, noninvasive molecular cancer biomarkers are based on p53 epitopes and MUC1 tandem repeats. Here we use dimensionally compressed bioinformatic fractal scaling analysis to compare the two distinct and comparable probes, which examine different sections of the autoantibody population, achieving combined sensitivities of order 50%. We discover a promising MUC1 epitope in the SEA region outside the tandem repeats.

We have modeled the metabolic process running in aerobic cells as open nonlinear dissipative systems. The map of metabolic paths and the general scheme of a dissipative system participating in the transformation of steroids are constructed. We have studied the influence of the Krebs cycle on the dynamics of the whole metabolic process and constructed projections of the phase portrait in the strange attractor mode. The total spectra of Lyapunov exponents, divergences, Lyapunov's dimensions of the fractality, Kolmogorov--Sinai entropies, and predictability horizons for the given modes are calculated. We have determined the bifurcation diagram presenting the dependence of the dynamics on a small parameter, which defines system's physical state.

The distribution of bases spacing in human genome was investigated. An analysis of the frequency of occurrence in the human genome of different sequence lengths flanked by one type of nucleotide was carried out showing that the distribution has no self-similar (fractal) structure. The results nevertheless revealed several characteristic features: (i) the distribution for short-range spacing is quite similar to the purely stochastic sequences; (ii) the distribution for long-range spacing essentially deviates from the random sequence distribution, showing strong long-range correlations; (iii) the differences between (A, T) and (C, G) bases are quite significant; (iv) the spacing distribution displays tiny oscillations.

Data from experimental observations of a class of neurological processes (Freeman K-sets) present functional distribution reproducing Bessel function behavior. We model such processes with couples of damped/amplified oscillators which provide time dependent representation of Bessel equation. The root loci of poles and zeros conform to solutions of K-sets. Some light is shed on the problem of filling the gap between the cellular level dynamics and the brain functional activity. Breakdown of time-reversal symmetry is related with the cortex thermodynamic features. This provides a possible mechanism to deduce lifetime of recorded memory.