Quantitative Finance

We study a stochastic control approach to managed futures portfolios. Building on the Schwartz 97 stochastic convenience yield model for commodity prices, we formulate a utility maximization problem for dynamically trading a single-maturity futures or multiple futures contracts over a finite horizon. By analyzing the associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation, we solve the investor's utility maximization problem explicitly and derive the optimal dynamic trading strategies in closed form. We provide numerical examples and illustrate the optimal trading strategies using WTI crude oil futures data.

Over the last decade, dividends have become a standalone asset class instead of a mere side product of an equity investment. We introduce a framework based on polynomial jump-diffusions to jointly price the term structures of dividends and interest rates. Prices for dividend futures, bonds, and the dividend paying stock are given in closed form. We present an efficient moment based approximation method for option pricing. In a calibration exercise we show that a parsimonious model specification has a good fit with Euribor interest rate swaps and swaptions, Euro Stoxx 50 index dividend futures and dividend options, and Euro Stoxx 50 index options.

The present paper is devoted to the study of a bank salvage model with finite time horizon and subjected to stochastic impulse controls. In our model, the bank's default time is a completely inaccessible random quantity generating its own filtration, then reflecting the unpredictability of the event itself. In this framework the main goal is to minimize the total cost of the central controller who can inject capital to save the bank from default. We address the latter task showing that the corresponding quasi-variational inequality (QVI) admits a unique viscosity solution, Lipschitz continuous in space and Holder continuous in time. Furthermore, under mild assumptions on the dynamics the smooth-fit W (1,2),p loc property is achieved for any 1<p<+∞ .

In this paper we propose and analyze a class of stochastic N -player games that includes finite fuel stochastic games as a special case. We first derive sufficient conditions for the Nash equilibrium (NE) in the form of a verification theorem, which reveals an essential game component regarding the interaction among players. It is an analytical representation of the conditional optimality condition for NEs, largely missing in the existing literature on stochastic games. The derivation of NEs involves first solving a multi-dimensional free boundary problem and then a Skorokhod problem, where the boundary is "moving" in that it depends on both the changes of the system and the control strategies of other players. Finally, we reformulate NE strategies in the form of controlled rank-dependent stochastic differential equations.

We present a number of related comparison results, which allow to compare moment explosion times, moment generating functions and critical moments between rough and non-rough Heston models of stochastic volatility. All results are based on a comparison principle for certain non-linear Volterra integral equations. Our upper bound for the moment explosion time is different from the bound introduced by Gerhold, Gerstenecker and Pinter (2018) and tighter for typical parameter values. The results can be directly transferred to a comparison principle for the asymptotic slope of implied volatility between rough and non-rough Heston models. This principle shows that the ratio of implied volatility slopes in the rough vs. the non-rough Heston model increases at least with power-law behavior for small maturities.

The second fundamental theorem of asset pricing characterizes completeness of a financial market by uniqueness of prices of financial claims. The associated super- and sub-hedging dualities give upper and lower bounds of the no-arbitrage interval. In this article we provide conditional versions of these results in discrete time. The main tool we use are consistency properties of dynamic non-linear expectations, which we apply to the super- and sub-hedging prices. The obtained results extend existing results in the literature, where the conditional setting is in most cases considered only on finite probability spaces. Using non-linear expectations we also provide a new perspective on the optional decomposition theorem.

This article introduces a new mathematical concept of illiquidity that goes hand in hand with credit risk. The concept is not volume- but constraint-based, i.e., certain assets cannot be shorted and are ineligible as numéraire. If those assets are still chosen as numéraire, we arrive at a two-price economy. We utilise Jarrow & Turnbull's foreign exchange analogy that interprets defaultable zero-coupon bonds as a conversion of non-defaultable foreign counterparts. In the language of structured derivatives, the impact of credit risk is disabled through quanto-ing. In a similar fashion, we look at bond prices as if perfect liquidity was given. This corresponds to asset pricing with respect to an ineligible numéraire and necessitates Föllmer measures.

We consider a continuous-time game-theoretic model of an investment market with short-lived assets and endogenous asset prices. The first goal of the paper is to formulate a stochastic equation which determines wealth processes of investors and to provide conditions for the existence of its solution. The second goal is to show that there exists a strategy such that the logarithm of the relative wealth of an investor who uses it is a submartingale regardless of the strategies of the other investors, and the relative wealth of any other essentially different strategy vanishes asymptotically. This strategy can be considered as an optimal growth portfolio in the model.

We consider the pricing problem facing a seller of a contingent claim. We assume that this seller has some general level of partial information, and that he is not allowed to sell short in certain assets. This pricing problem, which is our primal problem, is a constrained stochastic optimization problem. We derive a dual to this problem by using the conjugate duality theory introduced by Rockafellar. Furthermore, we give conditions for strong duality to hold. This gives a characterization of the price of the claim involving martingale- and super-martingale conditions on the optional projection of the price processes.

In insurance mathematics optimal control problems over an infinite time horizon arise when computing risk measures. Their solutions correspond to solutions of deterministic semilinear (degenerate) elliptic partial differential equations. In this paper we propose a deep neural network algorithm for solving such partial differential equations in high dimensions. The algorithm is based on the correspondence of elliptic partial differential equations to backward stochastic differential equations with random terminal time.