Statistics

Propensity score methods are widely used in observational studies for evaluating marginal treatment effects. The generalized propensity score (GPS) is an extension of the propensity score framework, historically developed in the case of binary exposures, for use with quantitative or continuous exposures. In this paper, we proposed variance esti-mators for treatment effect estimators on continuous outcomes. Dose-response functions (DRF) were estimated through weighting on the inverse of the GPS, or using stratification. Variance estimators were evaluated using Monte Carlo simulations. Despite the use of stabilized weights, the variability of the weighted estimator of the DRF was particularly high, and none of the variance estimators (a bootstrap-based estimator, a closed-form estimator especially developped to take into account the estimation step of the GPS, and a sandwich estimator) were able to adequately capture this variability, resulting in coverages below to the nominal value, particularly when the proportion of the variation in the quantitative exposure explained by the covariates was 1 large. The stratified estimator was more stable, and variance estima-tors (a bootstrap-based estimator, a pooled linearized estimator, and a pooled model-based estimator) more efficient at capturing the empirical variability of the parameters of the DRF. The pooled variance estimators tended to overestimate the variance, whereas the bootstrap estimator, which intrinsically takes into account the estimation step of the GPS, resulted in correct variance estimations and coverage rates. These methods were applied to a real data set with the aim of assessing the effect of maternal body mass index on newborn birth weight.

Risk assessment instruments are used across the criminal justice system to estimate the probability of some future behavior given covariates. The estimated probabilities are then used in making decisions at the individual level. In the past, there has been controversy about whether the probabilities derived from group-level calculations can meaningfully be applied to individuals. Using Bayesian hierarchical models applied to a large longitudinal dataset from the court system in the state of Kentucky, we analyze variation in individual-level probabilities of failing to appear for court and the extent to which it is captured by covariates. We find that individuals within the same risk group vary widely in their probability of the outcome. In practice, this means that allocating individuals to risk groups based on standard approaches to risk assessment, in large part, results in creating distinctions among individuals who are not meaningfully different in terms of their likelihood of the outcome. This is because uncertainty about the probability that any particular individual will fail to appear is large relative to the difference in average probabilities among any reasonable set of risk groups.

A new strategy is proposed for building easy to interpret predictive models in the context of a high-dimensional dataset, with a large number of highly correlated explanatory variables. The strategy is based on a first step of variables clustering using the CLustering of Variables around Latent Variables (CLV) method. The exploration of the hierarchical clustering dendrogram is undertaken in order to sequentially select the explanatory variables in a group-wise fashion. For model setting implementation, the dendrogram is used as the base-learner in an L2-boosting procedure. The proposed approach, named lmCLV, is illustrated on the basis of a toy-simulated example when the clusters and predictive equation are already known, and on a real case study dealing with the authentication of orange juices based on 1H-NMR spectroscopic analysis. In both illustrative examples, this procedure was shown to have similar predictive efficiency to other methods, with additional interpretability capacity. It is available in the R package ClustVarLV.

Social distancing and stay-at-home are among the few measures that are known to be effective in checking the spread of a pandemic such as COVID-19 in a given population. The patterns of dependency between such measures and their effects on disease incidence may vary dynamically and across different populations. We described a new computational framework to measure and compare the temporal relationships between human mobility and new cases of COVID-19 across more than 150 cities of the United States with relatively high incidence of the disease. We used a novel application of Optimal Transport for computing the distance between the normalized patterns induced by bivariate time series for each pair of cities. Thus, we identified 10 clusters of cities with similar temporal dependencies, and computed the Wasserstein barycenter to describe the overall dynamic pattern for each cluster. Finally, we used city-specific socioeconomic covariates to analyze the composition of each cluster.

Artificial light-at-night (ALAN), emitted from the ground and visible from space, marks human presence on Earth. Since the launch of the Suomi National Polar Partnership satellite with the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite Day/Night Band (VIIRS/DNB) onboard, global nighttime images have significantly improved; however, they remained panchromatic. Although multispectral images are also available, they are either commercial or free of charge, but sporadic. In this paper, we use several machine learning techniques, such as linear, kernel, random forest regressions, and elastic map approach, to transform panchromatic VIIRS/DBN into Red Green Blue (RGB) images. To validate the proposed approach, we analyze RGB images for eight urban areas worldwide. We link RGB values, obtained from ISS photographs, to panchromatic ALAN intensities, their pixel-wise differences, and several land-use type proxies. Each dataset is used for model training, while other datasets are used for the model validation. The analysis shows that model-estimated RGB images demonstrate a high degree of correspondence with the original RGB images from the ISS database. Yet, estimates, based on linear, kernel and random forest regressions, provide better correlations, contrast similarity and lower WMSEs levels, while RGB images, generated using elastic map approach, provide higher consistency of predictions.

Accurate risk stratification is key to reducing cancer morbidity through targeted screening and preventative interventions. Numerous breast cancer risk prediction models have been developed, but they often give predictions with conflicting clinical implications. Integrating information from different models may improve the accuracy of risk predictions, which would be valuable for both clinicians and patients. BRCAPRO and BCRAT are two widely used models based on largely complementary sets of risk factors. BRCAPRO is a Bayesian model that uses detailed family history information to estimate the probability of carrying a BRCA1/2 mutation, as well as future risk of breast and ovarian cancer, based on mutation prevalence and penetrance (age-specific probability of developing cancer given genotype). BCRAT uses a relative hazard model based on first-degree family history and non-genetic risk factors. We consider two approaches for combining BRCAPRO and BCRAT: 1) modifying the penetrance functions in BRCAPRO using relative hazard estimates from BCRAT, and 2) training an ensemble model that takes as input BRCAPRO and BCRAT predictions. We show that the combination models achieve performance gains over BRCAPRO and BCRAT in simulations and data from the Cancer Genetics Network.

To what extent can the strength of a local urban community impact neighborhood safety? We constructed measures of community vibrancy based on a unique dataset of block party permit approvals from the City of Philadelphia. We use both regression modeling and propensity score matching to control for the economic, demographic and land use characteristics of the surrounding neighborhood when examining the relationship betweeen crime and our measures of community vibrancy. We conduct our analysis on aggregate levels of crime and community vibrancy from 2006 to 2015 as well as the trends in community vibrancy and crime over this time period. We find that neighborhoods with a higher number of block parties have a significantly higher crime rate, while those holding a greater proportion of spontaneous block party events have a significantly lower crime rate. We also find that neighborhoods with an increase in the ratio spontaneous block parties over time are significantly more likely to have a decreasing trend in total crime incidence over that same time period.

Over the past few months, the outbreak of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been expanding over the world. A reliable and accurate dataset of the cases is vital for scientists to conduct related research and for policy-makers to make better decisions. We collect the United States COVID-19 daily reported data from four open sources: the New York Times, the COVID-19 Data Repository by Johns Hopkins University, the COVID Tracking Project at the Atlantic, and the USAFacts, then compare the similarities and differences among them. To obtain reliable data for further analysis, we first examine the cyclical pattern and the following anomalies, which frequently occur in the reported cases: (1) the order dependencies violation, (2) the point or period anomalies, and (3) the issue of reporting delay. To address these detected issues, we propose the corresponding repairing methods and procedures if corrections are necessary. In addition, we integrate the COVID-19 reported cases with the county-level auxiliary information of the local features from official sources, such as health infrastructure, demographic, socioeconomic, and environmental information, which are also essential for understanding the spread of the virus.

Representational similarity analysis (RSA) tests models of brain computation by investigating how neural activity patterns reflect experimental conditions. Instead of predicting activity patterns directly, the models predict the geometry of the representation, as defined by the representational dissimilarity matrix (RDM), which captures to what extent experimental conditions are associated with similar or dissimilar activity patterns. RSA therefore first quantifies the representational geometry by calculating a dissimilarity measure for each pair of conditions, and then compares the estimated representational dissimilarities to those predicted by each model. Here we address two central challenges of RSA: First, dissimilarity measures such as the Euclidean, Mahalanobis, and correlation distance, are biased by measurement noise, which can lead to incorrect inferences. Unbiased dissimilarity estimates can be obtained by crossvalidation, at the price of increased variance. Second, the pairwise dissimilarity estimates are not statistically independent, and ignoring this dependency makes model comparison statistically suboptimal. We present an analytical expression for the mean and (co)variance of both biased and unbiased estimators of the squared Euclidean and Mahalanobis distance, allowing us to quantify the bias-variance trade-off. We also use the analytical expression of the covariance of the dissimilarity estimates to whiten the RDM estimation errors. This results in a new criterion for RDM similarity, the whitened unbiased RDM cosine similarity (WUC), which allows for near-optimal model selection combined with robustness to correlated measurement noise.

Land use land cover changes (LULCC) are generally modeled using multi-scale spatio-temporal variables. Recently, Markov Chain (MC) has been used to model LULCC. However, the model is derived from the proportion of LULCC observed over a given period and it does not account for temporal factors such as macro-economic, socio-economic, etc. In this paper, we present a richer model based on Hidden Markov Model (HMM), grounded in the common knowledge that economic, social and LULCC processes are tightly coupled. We propose a HMM where LULCC classes represent hidden states and temporal fac-tors represent emissions that are conditioned on the hidden states. To our knowledge, HMM has not been used in LULCC models in the past. We further demonstrate its integration with other spatio-temporal models such as Logistic Regression. The integrated model is applied on the LULCC data of Pune district in the state of Maharashtra (India) to predict and visualize urban LULCC over the past 14 years. We observe that the HMM integrated model has improved prediction accuracy as compared to the corresponding MC integrated model