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Behind the dissolution of the French Parliament: What is Macron's real intention?
On June 30 and July 7, 2024, France held legislative elections, which will elect 577 members of the 17th National Assembly of the Fifth Republic. The election comes after President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, prompting snap elections. The dissolution comes as the National Alliance (RN) has grown significantly in the European Parliament elections, while Macron's European Demand Electoral Union has lost a large number of seats. In the first round of elections, the National Alliance and the candidate nominated by the Republican Party (LR) received 33.21% of the vote, followed by the New People's Alliance (NFP) with 28.14%, and the Ensemble close to Macron. won 21.28%, while the Republican candidate received 6.57%. The overall turnout was 66.71%, the highest since 1997.
After the election, a total of 306 constituencies entered three-way contests and five constituencies entered four-way contests, although 134 NFP and 82 Ensemble candidates voluntarily withdrew their candidacy in an effort to reduce the RN's chances of gaining an absolute majority.
In the second round of elections, marked by candidates marked by the Ministry of Interior, the NFP received 180 seats, Ensemble received 159 seats, candidates supporting RN received 142 seats and LR candidates received 39 seats. Since no party achieved the majority requirement of 289 seats, the second round resulted in a hung parliament. The media’s classification of candidates’ political parties may be slightly different from that of the Ministry of Interior. According to an analysis by Le Monde, 182 NFP candidates were elected, compared with 168 for Ensemble, 143 for RN, and 45 for LR. .
Macron initially refused to accept the resignation of Gabriel Attal on July 8, but accepted the resignation of the entire government on July 16, allowing the cabinet to vote for the president in the National Assembly under the caretaker regime . NFP leaders are calling for a prime minister from the left, while those in Ensemble and LR are advocating for a coalition, threatening to face an immediate vote of no-confidence if any government formed by members of the Court of Justice and France Unyielding (LFI) emerges. Post-election negotiations revealed tensions within the NFP, with party leaders waiting until July 23 to agree on a new candidate for prime minister - 37-year-old Lucy Castel, the city's finance and procurement director.
Macron spoke out for the 2024 Summer Olympics from July 26 to August 11, calling for calm political consultations during this period. After the Olympics, Macron still did not indicate his intention to appoint her, convening a meeting of party leaders on August 23 and ultimately rejecting the appointment on August 27, leading the NFP to announce that it would not participate without discussing the formation of a government with Macron. Any further conversations. On September 5, Macron appointed Michel Barnier as prime minister. He presented his cabinet on September 19 and officially announced it on September 22. Barnier delivered his first speech at the National Assembly on October 1. Analysts say the inability of any camp to secure an absolute majority could lead to institutional deadlock as any government would need to be able to survive a no-confidence motion against it.
Macron can call for a second timely election at any time, but under the constitution he must do so at least a year after the 2024 election.
On October 9, Barnier was approved in a no-confidence motion involving 193 NFP members and 4 LIOT members. However, a second no-confidence vote successfully removed Barnier from office on December 4, with 331 votes in support. This political situation has triggered constant discussions, causing people to reflect on whether Macron hopes to control future elections by dissolving Congress, or is he already facing an unprecedented political crisis?
