In the scientific community, the causes of climate change have been studied for decades. As numerous research results have come out, the scientific community has gradually reached a consensus: since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have undoubtedly had a significant impact on the warming of the atmosphere, oceans and land. This consensus is supported by about 200 scientific organizations around the world. The science behind climate change today is the greenhouse effect, which means that greenhouse gases allow sunlight to penetrate the atmosphere, thereby warming the Earth, but they also trap some of the heat radiating from the Earth's surface.
Since the Industrial Revolution, large amounts of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have been released into the atmosphere. Natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation also play a role in influencing climate, but the scientific evidence on current climate change strongly suggests that human activity is the main driver.
In the climate system, increased concentrations of some greenhouse gases can significantly affect the Earth's radiative forcing, leading to global warming.
The sharp increase in greenhouse gases comes not only from the burning of fossil fuels, but also from changes in land use and other emissions such as nitrous oxide. The relationship between the concentration of these gases and the warming of the climate is logarithmic, with each additional addition of greenhouse gases causing a slightly smaller warming effect as concentrations increase. However, carbon dioxide concentrations have remained high in recent years, meaning their warming effect remains quite strong.
As part of the greenhouse effect, water vapor concentrations and the Earth's reflectivity (Albedo) change as concentrations change, further exacerbating the effects of climate change.
As more carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere, the percentage of carbon sinks absorbing it decreases. The warming effect of greenhouse gases is reinforced by the feedback mechanism of rapid climate change. This phenomenon makes the warming caused by each unit of carbon dioxide emitted by humans more significant than before. Some of the warming effect of carbon dioxide emitted by human activities has long been masked by emissions of sulfur oxides, which form aerosols and cause a cooling effect. But as the world combats acid rain and air pollution, this masking effect is gradually weakening.
External forcing factors are external influences on the climate system. These include natural phenomena such as volcanic eruptions and changes in solar radiation, while human-induced forcing mainly involves changes in the composition of the Earth's atmosphere. Radiative forcing is a measure of how these factors affect the Earth's energy balance. Positive radiative forcing will lead to surface warming, which in turn affects the development of the climate system.
Climate feedbacks can enhance or weaken the climate's response to external forcings and are often at the heart of the operation of the climate system.
Scientists have identified a variety of climate feedback mechanisms, the most important of which are water vapor feedback and ice-reflectivity (Albedo) feedback. As the air warms, it also holds more water vapor, a potent greenhouse gas that further fuels the warming process.
Since the Industrial Revolution, most of the increase in CO2 concentrations has come from the burning of fossil fuels and changes in land use. According to the report, as of 2019, concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane had risen by approximately 48% and 160%, respectively. These increases not only raise average global temperatures, but also set off a series of chain reactions that further accelerate the pace of climate change.
Anthropogenic warming of surface air temperature is estimated to range from 0.8°C to 1.3°C between 2010 and 2019 relative to the change between 1850 and 1900.
In addition, the carbon sink systems in water and land are also changing. The absorption rate of carbon dioxide by forests and healthy ecosystems in the past has slowed down, which also contributes to the adverse situation of global warming. The impacts of these changes on natural ecosystems are evident, especially in weather patterns and biomes.
In short, the operation of climate feedback mechanisms makes the problem of global warming more complicated, and effective measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent. What we are facing is not only a climate issue, but also a global challenge that affects all life. Think about what concrete actions we can take as individuals to slow down this negative trend.