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Elon Musk's prediction for the future: When will Tesla be able to drive itself?
In today's world of rapid technological advancement, the concept of fully self-driving cars has attracted the attention of countless people. Tesla founder Elon Musk has repeatedly claimed since 2013 that Tesla will achieve full self-driving in the near future. However, this goal is still far away, which makes people wonder: Can Tesla really achieve fully autonomous driving as promised?
“The realization of self-driving cars is not only a technical challenge, but also a legal and ethical consideration.”
Tesla’s current self-driving function mainly relies on its advanced driver assistance system (ADAS), which it calls the “Autopilot” system. While the system's functionality allows the vehicle to drive itself under certain conditions, it still requires the driver's full supervision. According to SAE International's definition, this is Level 2 self-driving, not full self-driving (Level 5). This has caused fierce controversy over the terms "Autopilot" and "Full Self-Driving".
Musk’s vision is to fully realize the self-driving function of vehicles by 2030, but the reliability of this prediction has been questioned by many experts. Since 2013, Musk has predicted many times that Tesla will achieve full self-driving capabilities within the next one to three years. However, so far, this prediction has not been realized.
“Many industry observers have questioned Tesla’s reliance on untrained consumer testers to verify Beta features as a dangerous and irresponsible move.”
Tesla’s Autopilot system has undergone multiple hardware and software updates since it was first launched in 2014. The initial version relied heavily on Mobileye's technology, but after the partnership was dissolved in 2016, Tesla began developing its own hardware system. In 2016, the launch of Enhanced Autopilot (EAP) and Full Self-Driving (FSD) is regarded as an important step towards further promoting full self-driving.
By 2024, Tesla claims that its FSD version has achieved higher performance, but consumer acceptance has shown a downward trend. Musk said that in the near future, FSD will likely continue to evolve through cloud updates.
“Many car buyers are dissatisfied with the price increase of FSD, which makes them doubt the promises provided by Musk.”
Musk predicted in 2015 that fully self-driving capabilities would be achieved by 2018, but he subsequently delayed this timetable many times, with the latest prediction being at the end of 2023. The ongoing delays have prompted widespread skepticism from consumers and the media, and even California Department of Motor Vehicles officials have said Musk's rhetoric often doesn't match engineering realities.
In the opinion of many experts, the realization of Tesla's fully self-driving goal relies more on software progress rather than hardware breakthroughs. Musk bluntly stated that the car's self-driving ability is limited by the development of software, and said that a supercomputer called "Dojo" is being trained to improve the performance of AI.
“The realization of full self-driving is a software limiting factor, but the hardware infrastructure is fully available.”
According to information, Tesla’s self-driving technology relies on behavioral data from more than 6 million Tesla drivers and has driven more than 3 billion miles on public roads. However, compared with other companies, the training method chosen by Tesla mainly focuses on the driving behavior of consumers rather than professional test drivers.
The result of this strategy is that Tesla's FSD is getting closer and closer to full self-driving capabilities technically, but it still faces many limitations in practical applications. According to the evaluation, many Tesla owners reported that they still need to intervene in driving from time to time when using the FSD function, which shows that the current technology has not reached the standard of full self-driving.
On the road ahead, can Tesla overcome these challenges and achieve the full self-driving predicted by Musk?
