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Is the Great Disaster just a distant nightmare? What similar events have occurred in history?
When discussing global disaster risks, most of us cannot avoid a difficult question: Are these risks really increasing as technology advances, as many experts predict? Humanity has faced many disasters throughout history, but have these disasters served as warning devices for us, or are they just a vague memory?
The concept of global disaster risk itself is vague, yet most people are familiar with such risks.
Global catastrophe risks are events that have the potential to cause severe damage on a global scale. However, these risks can be divided into "man-made risks" and "non-man-made risks". Anthropogenic risks are dangers caused by human behavior, such as nuclear war, climate change or biological warfare. These events not only have profound consequences in the present, but may also affect the survival potential of future generations.
Whether man-made or not, the consequences of these catastrophic events could upend modern civilization.
We have witnessed some tragic events in history, such as the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, the decline of imperial colonies, and epidemics everywhere. The ending of each event seems to tell us that no matter how prosperous a society is, it may collapse in an instant.
When we reflect on similar events in history, we can find some clues. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed an estimated 30 to 60 million people worldwide, becoming one of the most tragic public health crises in humanity since the 20th century. However, the impact of the pandemic has been more localized than a global collapse. In contrast, the absolute toll that an event like the Black Death exacted on human society was far more profound.
Many societies have shown amazing resilience in the face of large-scale disasters, but this does not mean that human society will always be immune to disasters.
Today's scientists and risk experts may not be able to find effective response strategies for the threats facing modern society, such as the risks brought by high technology, by looking at past events. The rapid development of future technology may have unexpected consequences, which may eventually pose potential "existential risks". These risks will not only lead to human extinction, but will also drag humanity into a mistake from which there is no return.
Looking back at history, some scholars have proposed many scenarios related to "ideological oppression", such as the totalitarian society depicted in Orwell's novel "1984". In such a society, humanity’s future is no longer filled with infinite possibilities, but is locked in a tragic reality. Does this mean that the threats we face come not only from natural disasters or technological uncontrollability, but also from the social systems created by humans themselves?
How to deal with these potential disaster risks has become an important issue for global leaders and experts.
As human society progresses, many organizations and research institutes have been established to explore these risks in depth and propose possible mitigation strategies. From governments to non-governmental organizations, from academic issues to policy advocacy, a series of actions have followed, attempting to incorporate the issue of global disaster risks into public discussion.
But despite these efforts, many people remain hesitant about the risks posed by global warming, nuclear proliferation and artificial intelligence. Many people’s judgments are clouded by cognitive biases, making it difficult for them to crystallize these seemingly distant risks. Compared with individual cases, the sense of oppression on humanity as a whole is often downplayed.
So, faced with such complex global disaster risks, how should humanity respond? Should we adopt a more forward-looking thinking to effectively avoid all this from happening?
