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Putin’s strategic thinking: Why does he insist on invading Ukraine?
On February 24, 2022, Russia launched an invasion of Ukraine. This incident marked a major escalation of the war in Ukraine and became the largest and most deadly conflict in Europe since World War II. The invasion resulted in hundreds of thousands of military casualties and tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilian casualties. As of 2024, the Russian army occupies about 20% of Ukraine's territory. This war has also caused about 8 million Ukrainians to face the fate of internal displacement, and more than 8.2 million people have fled the country, becoming the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.
Since the end of 2021, Russia has begun to build up troops on the Ukrainian border and issued demands, including banning Ukraine from joining the NATO military alliance. Although Putin has repeatedly denied any plans to attack Ukraine, on February 24, 2022, he announced the launch of a "special military operation", claiming that it was to support the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk two Paramilitary forces in the divided republics have been fighting against Ukraine since 2014.
"Putin declared that Russia's goal is to "demilitarize and denazify" Ukraine."
Putin's comments challenged Ukraine's legitimacy as a state and claimed that the Ukrainian government was a notorious Nazi responsible for genocide against Russian minorities. The invasion began when the Russian army launched attacks from the north, south and east in an attempt to quickly seize major cities in Ukraine.
With the imposition of martial law and widespread mobilization in Ukraine, the Russian army's northern offensive faced fierce resistance and logistical challenges, leading to its withdrawal from the area around Kiev in April 2022. In the southeast, Russian forces launched an offensive in the Donbas region and captured Mariupol under a devastating siege. As the war unfolded, Russian air strikes and ground aggression expanded across civilian and military targets.
"According to a report by the United Nations Human Rights Office, Russia has committed serious human rights violations in occupied Ukrainian lands."
The invasion drew widespread condemnation from the international community, and the United Nations General Assembly passed a resolution calling for a full withdrawal of Russian troops. Many countries have tightened sanctions on Russia and provided humanitarian and military assistance to Ukraine. The ongoing conflict has been accompanied by food crises and environmental disasters, and accusations of genocide have been leveled against the Russian military's actions.
After Russia occupied Crimea in 2014, Ukraine officially deleted the neutrality clause from its constitution and began to seek ways to join NATO and the European Union. As the situation evolved, it became clear that Russia hoped to control this strategic location through force. Ukraine's geographical and resource advantages also made Putin more strategic in planning this invasion.
"If Russia controls Ukraine, it will definitely gain a monopoly on the global market."
As time went by, although Russia's offensive in the east and south suffered setbacks, Putin still adhered to his strategy towards Ukraine amid international containment. His supporters view control of former Soviet territories as a necessary step in restoring Great Russia and view any form of Western involvement as a direct threat to Russia.
Facing a difficult war situation, Putin not only relied on military operations to achieve his political goals, but also his tough diplomatic attitude and internal control measures were his means to stabilize his power. Observers have noted that the strong support for aggression within Putin's internal decision-making circles undoubtedly reflects the strong sense of oppression he feels in domestic and international situations.
"He used history and national sentiment as tools to justify aggression."
Putin’s strategy appears to be under increasing pressure amid the backlash from the international community over Russia’s actions. The impact of sanctions, the attrition of the war, and internal dissatisfaction make his future decisions full of uncertainty. Facing the dual pressure of external challenges and internal turmoil, can Putin maintain his control over Ukraine and even achieve his goals through military means?
