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Shocking! The huge potential of the San Andreas Fault: When will the next big earthquake come?
The San Andreas Fault, a right-barge transform fault that extends about 1,200 kilometers across California, has become the focus of the world's attention. As the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American Plate, the geological activity and potential risks of this fault have attracted countless people's attention and research.
Scientists agree that secondary activity on the San Andreas Fault will release huge amounts of energy in the near future and could trigger a devastating earthquake.
This fault is divided into three main sections: north, middle and south based on geological characteristics, with each area having different levels of earthquake risk. According to the study, the average slip rate across the entire fault is about 20 to 35 millimeters per year. According to the analysis of geologists, the southern section of the San Andreas Fault has the potential to trigger an 8.1-magnitude earthquake, which would cause immeasurable damage to the Los Angeles area.
The history of the San Andreas Fault dates back to 1895, when Professor Andrew Lawson of the University of California, Berkeley, first confirmed its existence. After the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, Lawson examined the source and impact of the earthquake and found significant displacement along the fault, thus confirming the relationship between this fault and earthquakes.
The activity of the San Andreas fault is undoubtedly one of the most worrying sources of earthquakes at present, especially since the southern section has not experienced a major earthquake for a long time.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey, there is a 7% chance of an 8.0-magnitude earthquake occurring on the southern segment of the San Andreas Fault within the next 30 years. Such predictions undoubtedly force us to think about future risks and how to prepare before an earthquake strikes.
For example, a study published in 2006 stated that the stress on the San Andreas Fault has reached a critical point that could trigger an earthquake exceeding magnitude 7.0. This study highlights that earthquake risk may increase over time beyond our expectations. Especially in the Los Angeles area, the risk is even more pressing because the area has not experienced large-scale rupture in the past 300 years.
Science uses data and model simulations to predict the timing of earthquakes, but the ability to accurately predict remains a concern.
The latest research also points out that changes in water may trigger earthquakes. For example, a 2023 study showed a strong correlation between water levels in Lake Kahuila in Southern California and seismic activity on the San Andreas Fault. When lake levels rise, it can increase stress on faults, triggering earthquakes.
As the world's awareness of earthquake risks continues to increase, many researchers are focusing on how to improve the seismic performance of buildings and the resistance of urban infrastructure. Even so, the socioeconomic impact of large-scale earthquakes cannot be underestimated. For example, a severe earthquake could cause thousands of casualties and hundreds of billions of dollars in damage, especially in dense cities like California.
Imagine if a large-scale earthquake really occurred, how would the lives of the victims be subverted? How long will reconstruction bring challenges? Against this background, building social resilience and urban recovery strategies are extremely important.
At the end, we should probably think about what else we can do to prepare to protect ourselves and others in the face of the upcoming earthquake risk?
