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Spain's 2024 European Parliament election reversal: Why did the People's Party win but not meet expectations?
On June 9, 2024, Spain held the European Parliament election, which became the focus of many political analysts and voters. The results showed that the opposition People's Party (PP) received 34.2% of the vote and 22 seats. Although this result was an increase from 2019, it failed to achieve the landslide victory predicted by the polls.
“The election results show the turmoil in Spanish politics and dissatisfaction with the existing regime, while voters consider more complex factors than ever before when casting their votes.”
Although the People's Party has achieved greater growth, it has fallen behind poll expectations. According to the latest data, the party gained 14 percentage points and 9 seats compared with 2019, but the number of seats it won failed to reach the 30 seats initially predicted. The ruling Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) maintained 30.2% of the votes and 20 seats. Although it fell by less than three percentage points and one seat compared with 2019, it showed a certain degree of resistance.
"The splitting of the left-wing vote was a major feature of this election, especially between the SUMAR alliance and Podemos."
The fascist far-right Vox party made gains, with its share rising to nearly 10% and gaining 6 seats. The fragmentation of the left-wing vote is particularly obvious, especially the competition between Yolanda Díaz's SUMAR alliance and former minister Irene Montero's Podemos, which has weakened the influence of the entire left-wing force. What’s even more dramatic is that the right-wing “Se Acabó La Fiesta” (“The Party is Over”) party led by social media celebrity Alvise Pérez, despite limited space, still achieved sixth place in the election. IN SUMAR.
The vote was also highlighted by the apparent collapse of the Citizens Party (Cs), which had received 12.2% of the vote and 8 seats in the 2019 election, but only 0.7 this time. % of the vote and completely lost parliamentary seats. This change reflects a major change in Spain's political landscape and has led many analysts to delve into the reasons behind it.
“This election loss has caused the voices of most voters to be ignored, especially those groups that seek change but fail unexpectedly no matter how hard they try.”
After the election, Yolanda Díaz announced her resignation as the leader of SUMAR. This decision undoubtedly set off a new round of shock in Spanish left-wing politics. In addition, Vox announced that it would break away from the European conservative and reformist organizations and join Viktor Orban’s New European Patriot Group. Such changes will lead to further changes in the future political landscape.
Electoral system
According to the Treaty of Lisbon, Spain has 61 seats in the European Parliament. The electoral system is based on universal suffrage. All citizens over the age of 18 and non-national EU citizens living in Spain can vote. The 2022 amendment to the electoral law abolished the "request to vote" system in order to increase the voting participation rate of overseas Spaniards.
All seats are elected using the D'Hondt method with no entry barriers, which allows the vote distribution to vividly illustrate the competition between political parties.
Election prospects and polls
In the propaganda of each party, voters with different prospects for this election showed very different emotions. The polls clearly showed the preferences of voters. In fact, in the face of this election, many predictions showed that the People's Party had the strength to win the support of far more than 30 seats. However, the results showed the reality that they only won 22 seats.
Political commentators pointed out that the results of this election show that voters are becoming more cautious in political choices, especially in the context of economic recovery but social problems still exist. In such a volatile situation, will the People's Party's victory be enough to stabilize its base in Spain? Can they further consolidate this result in future elections this time?
In any case, the results of this election demonstrate the changes in Spanish politics and the uncertainty in future elections. It makes people wonder: Who will become the main force in Spanish politics in future elections?
