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The heart of transportation planning: why mode choice is key?
In the process of transportation planning, mode selection analysis is a crucial step, which directly affects the efficiency and sustainability of the transportation system. As the third step of common traffic prediction models, mode selection analysis is located between trip assignment and route assignment. By inputting the origin and destination tables, it helps model builders predict the possibility that passengers will use a certain transportation mode. These possibilities are called mode shares and are used to generate travel predictions for each feasible transportation mode.
Mode choice analysis allows us to more accurately predict traveler preferences across transportation modes.
Historical background
Early transportation planning models originated from the Chicago Area Transportation Study (CATS), which focused on public transportation use to understand how many travelers would still choose the transit system for their trip under various conditions. The study divided public transport journeys into two broad categories: journeys primarily to and from the central business district (CBD) (mainly using metro, express bus and commuter trains) and other commutes (mainly relying on local bus systems). As private car ownership increases, trade-offs begin to emerge between the use of these modes of travel and traditional bus services.
Technology of mode selection
CATS uses transfer curve technology, initially to analyze the transfer of autonomous vehicle traffic from streets and arterials to proposed expressways. The technology is also used in the design of city-wide bypasses to assess how much traffic will choose to bypass urban areas. Transfer curve analysis of mode selection is performed in the form of ratios, allowing traffic models to make predictions based on travelers' choices between different modes.
Transfer curve techniques rely on empirical observations and have continued to improve as data quality has improved.
Inequality travel demand model
Advances in travel demand theory allow us to conduct a more detailed analysis of the choices of different transportation modes. Based on Stan Warner's research in 1962, the later developed inequality demand model made it possible to study individual behavior patterns. Although it is aggregated, its basic unit of observation is the individual. These models not only apply consumer behavior concepts from economics, but are also inspired by psychology. Researchers at the University of California and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology use random utility models (Random Utility Models) and multinomial logit models (multinomial logit models) to provide richer tools for pattern selection research.
Advances in Choice models allow us to compare multiple choices and consider the impact of different characteristics.
Basics of psychology and economics
Early psychological research involved the behavioral patterns of individuals when faced with different object choices. Among them, the greater the difference, the higher the probability of correct choice. This type of model was later used to evaluate the attractiveness of various transportation modes to consumers. Economists extended it to utility theory, introducing random terms, such as personal preferences and choice errors. This improvement has a great impact on the practicality of the model. Sex has an important influence.
In mode choice, the traveler's choice of transportation mode is seen as the best response to his or her expected utility.
Challenges and applications of models
Although mode selection models have important application potential, models based on utility theory have certain limitations, such as the assumption that users have perfect information. These assumptions are difficult to establish in actual situations, so the diversity of individuals and the randomness of selection behavior must be taken into account when making predictions. Through the method of maximum likelihood estimation, researchers can estimate various parameters that affect selection, thereby improving the accuracy of the model.
Conclusion
Mode selection is the key to transportation planning. It not only affects the setting of the existing transportation system, but also relates to the sustainability of future urban development. Because of this, it is extremely important to have a deep understanding of the mechanisms behind mode selection and the data on which it relies. Transportation planners should continue to seek new data and methods to meet changing passenger needs and urban environmental challenges. In this context, regarding the choice of transportation mode, we should think about: How should future urban transportation planning respond to people's travel needs more effectively?
