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The miracle of decision-making reversal: Do you know how reverse reasoning affects career choices?
When faced with various career choice situations, we often react and make decisions instantly. But when the time span of choice extends to the next ten years, the introduction of the theory of backward induction undoubtedly provides us with a more systematic method to analyze these decisions. Starting from the end point of the problem and gradually working our way back to the beginning, understanding the process of the best choice can make us more forward-looking in our career choices.
Backward reasoning is the process of working backwards from the end point of a problem or situation to arrive at the best option.
Preliminary understanding of reverse reasoning
Reverse reasoning was first proposed by Arthur Cayley in 1875, with the original intention of solving the "secretary problem". Over time, this theory has been widely used in fields such as dynamic programming and game theory. In these situations, the interaction between different decision makers will affect the final decision outcome, which makes reverse reasoning an indispensable tool.
An example of reverse reasoning in career choice
Suppose a job seeker will face several career choices over the next ten years. At any point in time, he may encounter two jobs: one is a "good job" with a higher salary of $100 per year; the other is a "bad job" with a lower salary of $44 per year. At each point in the future, this job seeker will need to make choices based on potential future career opportunities.
If still unemployed at the end of the tenth year, job seekers should accept all offered jobs to obtain higher income.
Using reverse reasoning, the job seeker's choice in year 10 is clear: he must accept any job to avoid having zero income. Extrapolating back to the ninth year, he must consider two possible figures in the future: the expected salary for a good job and a bad job. Through continuous deduction, job seekers will gradually find that it is only appropriate not to accept a job offer in the ninth and tenth years, while it is better to accept a job offer in the eighth year.
Application of reverse reasoning in game
In game theory, backward reasoning is a method of solving problems that can help identify the best action for each player. As a simple example, suppose two players plan to go to a movie together. Player 1 wants to watch one movie, and player 2 wants to watch another. In the first stage, they react to each other's choices. By reasoning backwards, players can deduce the best plan of action.
In a multi-stage game, every choice made by the player will affect the final result, which is the most critical part of reverse reasoning.
Limitations of Backward Reasoning
Although backward reasoning is very effective in decision-making, it is not applicable to all games. When players cannot be sure of the other players' choices, the effectiveness of backward reasoning is reduced. In addition, the rational assumptions of different players may also affect the final game results. For example, in the "ultimatum game", if the first mover tries to propose an unfair distribution, they may be rejected, which will prevent them from making any profit. This reality presents a gap between theory and practice.
Relationship between reverse reasoning and economics
In economics, backward reasoning is often used to analyze market entry decisions. For example, whether a company in the market will welcome a new entrant requires reasoning through the logic of cost and profit. If existing firms are willing to tolerate new entrants, the rewards for new firms entering the market will be part of the economic stability of the market.
ConclusionOverall, reverse reasoning is not only a tool in mathematics and economics, it also has profound implications for career choices and game decisions. When faced with major choices in life, we might as well learn the reverse reasoning thinking mode and deeply analyze the factors that influence decision-making. So, in your future career choices, have you ever considered how to use reverse reasoning to come up with the best solution?
