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The possibility of human self-extinction: what is it all about?
Human self-extinction refers to the possibility that humans may completely disappear at some point in the future due to various reasons, which has triggered in-depth discussions among scientists and sociologists.
Omnicide is the hypothetical end of the human species, either due to a decline in population caused by natural factors (such as an asteroid impact or a large-scale volcanic eruption), or due to the destruction of the human species itself. behavior (self-extinction), such as insufficient fertility. Many potential causes of self-destruction such as climate change, global nuclear annihilation, biological warfare, weapons of mass destruction, and ecological collapse have attracted widespread attention.
History of Thought
Early HistoryBefore the 18th and 19th centuries, the possibility that humans or other creatures could become extinct was doubtful, contrary to the "principle of fullness." This theory states that everything that can possibly exist does exist. Early philosophers like Aristotle and Plato believed that the end of humanity was just a cycle of renewal. With the gradual development of natural science, the concept of biological extinction has also gained widespread acceptance.
Physicist Edmund Halley pointed out that human extinction might be beneficial to the future world.
In the 19th century, the topic of human extinction began to be widely discussed. In her works, novelist Mary Shelley imagined a world in which humanity was nearly destroyed by a mysterious plague. As the 20th century dawned, Russian cosmists advocated averting human extinction through space colonization.
The Atomic Age
The invention of the atomic bomb prompted in-depth discussions among scientists, intellectuals and the public about the risk of human extinction. “The prospects for mankind are darker than ever before,” the famous philosopher Bentham Russell wrote in 1945. In the decades that followed, debates about nuclear war and the possible extinction of all humanity grew. The discussion gradually came into focus.
Carl Sagan noted in 1983 that measuring the severity of an extinction simply in terms of death toll "obscures the full extent of its impact."
After the Cold War
In the 21st century, with the advancement of science and technology, some scholars have proposed new types of risks, firmly believing that our survival may be threatened by the development of technology. British astronomer Martin Reiss warned in his book Our Last Hour that advances in certain technologies could bring new threats to human survival. At this time, global disasters and existential risks have become important topics of ethical and scientific research.
Reason
Potential human factors include global thermonuclear war, the spread of highly effective biological weapons, ecological collapse, and artificial intelligence out of control. In addition to these human factors, natural disasters such as large-scale infectious diseases, super volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts are also seen as risks that may lead to human extinction.
Experts generally agree that man-made risks are much greater than natural risks and that these risks reflect the unpredictable nature of human behavior.
Probability
When studying the probability of human extinction, experts pointed out that existing data show that the average annual probability of natural risks is less than 1/14,000, which means that if the natural risk is really high, then humans in the past It would not have survived like this for 200,000 years.
Ethics
When discussing the ethics of human extinction, many scholars emphasize that reducing survival risks for the sake of countless future lives is a morally important task. Philosopher Derek Parfit proposed a thought experiment to demonstrate that if humans exterminate themselves, they would lose an immeasurable potential future.
Parfit points out that if humans were to disappear, countless possible lives and advances in the future would be lost.
These thoughts make us reflect on whether our current preparations are sufficient to avoid future extinction? In the face of so many risks, can we effectively protect our own and future generations' right to survival?
