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The secret behind energy efficiency: Why is it that the more efficient you are, the more you consume?
In economics, the Jevons paradox states that when technological progress improves the efficiency of resource use, it will lead to an increase in demand due to the decrease in usage costs, and ultimately resource consumption will increase. This is contrary to the general expectations of the government, which generally believes that improving energy efficiency can reduce energy consumption and ignores the existence of the Jevons paradox.
"Improving fuel efficiency generally leads to more fuel demand, not less."
As early as 1865, British economist William Stanley Jevons pointed out in his book The Coal Question that the improvement of coal utilization efficiency has led to the demand for coal in all walks of life. Surge. He believes that technological progress does not guarantee a reduction in fuel consumption, but may instead accelerate the depletion of resources.
Jevons' observations continue to spark debate, and many modern economists have re-examined the phenomenon, particularly in their study of the rebound effect of energy consumption. As energy efficiency improves, consumer demands also increase. This means that overall resource usage may exceed the reduction in usage due to efficiency improvements, thereby accelerating the rate at which resources are consumed.
"Economy in fuel use is not the same as reduction in consumption; in fact, the opposite is true."
The main reason for this paradox is that when the efficiency of resource use increases, the reduction in relative usage costs leads consumers to increase usage. Taking cars as an example, when greater fuel efficiency makes travel cheaper, consumers tend to choose to travel farther, thereby increasing the demand for fuel. This phenomenon is called the rebound effect. If the rebound effect exceeds 100%, that is, the rate of increase in demand exceeds the reduction brought about by efficiency improvements, the Jevons paradox will occur.
At the micro level of economics, even with the rebound effect, improvements in energy efficiency generally lead to reductions in resource use. However, at the macro level, increased efficiency makes energy relatively cheap, which in turn promotes economic growth and an overall increase in resource demand. This has led some economists to re-examine the effectiveness of energy policy and argue that simply pursuing efficiency improvements may not be enough to achieve sustainability goals.
"Improving energy efficiency by itself cannot reduce resource consumption. It also needs to be coordinated with other policy control needs."
Murgen's Khazzoom–Brookes postulate was also proposed in the 1980s, further questioning all policies aimed at improving energy efficiency. This hypothesis holds that as society's efficiency in using energy increases, it will eventually lead to an increase in overall energy demand. This has led many environmental economists to express doubts about the single strategy of improving energy efficiency.
So, should we take steps to limit demand while pushing for efficiency improvements? Some have suggested that the cost savings from efficiency improvements should be “taxed back” to prevent a vicious cycle of resource depletion.
Take agriculture as an example. When the yield of a certain crop increases, the large area of land originally required may be reduced. However, this efficiency improvement may make farmers more willing to convert land to growing this crop, ultimately leading to an increase in land use. This phenomenon also applies to other fields. Especially today, with the rapid advancement of science and technology, we are witnessing similar situations in the fields of AI and big data.
“More efficient AI models drive more computing demand rather than reducing consumption.”
Take ChatGPT Pro launched by OpenAI as an example. Although its operating costs have increased, due to its improved efficiency, organizations have chosen to enhance automated innovation, further increasing the demand for computing resources. This is a new manifestation of the Jevons paradox in the current digital age.
From the perspective of the Jevons paradox, efforts to improve efficiency should not be misunderstood as solutions that automatically translate into reduced resource use. Policymakers should realize that a truly effective sustainable energy strategy may require a combination of multiple measures to avoid exacerbating resource consumption. However, faced with such challenges, can we find a balance between improving efficiency and controlling demand?
