On October 27, 2024, Japan held a rare early election to resolve a major crisis within the government. Prime Minister Yoshihiko Fukuda's approval ratings plummeted amid a corruption scandal within the Liberal Democratic Party, leading to his eventual resignation.
Since 2021, Yoshihiko Fukuda’s government has struggled with multiple political crises. The initial shock came from the assassination of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, which brought heightened attention to allegations about his ties to the Liberal Democratic Party and the Unification Church. During this time, support for the Fukuda government fell sharply, eventually hitting a low of 23% in a December 2023 poll, the lowest since 2012. This series of attacks finally prompted Fukuda to announce his resignation as party chairman in August 2024.
Shigeru Ishiba, who took over as Prime Minister, found it difficult to restore the people's trust in the Liberal Democratic Party in a short period of time. Ishiba won the intra-party election on September 27 and quickly announced early elections. However, public dissatisfaction with ongoing corruption scandals has posed many challenges to the Liberal Democratic Party during the election. After the election results were announced, the Liberal Democratic Party only had 191 seats left and could no longer obtain a majority in parliament.
The day before the election, there was an arson attack on the headquarters of the Liberal Democratic Party. At that time, a 49-year-old man threw a Molotov cocktail at the provincial party committee office. All witnesses said that the incident showed that people's dissatisfaction with the government has reached the point of getting out of control. During the election, Shi Po called on democracy not to be threatened by violence and stressed that he would do his best to ensure the fairness of the election.
The turnout rate for this election was 53.84%, a drop of about two percentage points from 2021, showing that dissatisfaction caused by policy changes is still deep-rooted. Although the Liberal Democratic Party is still the largest party, its number of seats in the parliament has dropped significantly, winning only 215 seats. Under pressure from public opinion, Prime Minister Ishiba said he accepted the voters' "harsh verdict" and promised to better reflect public opinion in the future.
Fukuda's resignation marks the downturn of the Liberal Democratic Party in the past few years, and changes in the political ecology seem inevitable.
This election not only determines the future of the Liberal Democratic Party, but also paves the way for the rise of the opposition parties. The intertwining of citizens' expectations for the quasi-new government and their dissatisfaction with the old government means that there may be more intense political competition in the future. As the election results show, history can be rewritten at any time. Do you think this will be a turning point in Japanese politics?