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From History to the Future: How Accurate is Lichtman’s Election Prediction Model?
Amid the rapid changes in American politics, Allan Lichtman has become a high-profile historical figure with his unique election prediction model - Keys to the White House Scholars and political forecasters. Since 1984, the accuracy of his predictions has triggered widespread public discussion, especially his predictions for many U.S. presidential elections, which have been confirmed almost without exception. However, with the 2024 presidential election approaching, the accuracy of this system and its predictions is being challenged. Does this mean that Lichtman’s prediction myth is collapsing?
Key formation
Lichtman's predictive model is based on 13 binary judgment criteria that are used to determine whether current party candidates will win or lose in the upcoming election. The model was created in 1981 in collaboration with Russian seismologist Vladimir Kelis-Borok and was inspired by data from 1860 to 1980.
"This system is able to abstract away many of the key factors in elections that have historically proven to have a significant correlation with outcomes."
A predicted journey from 1984 to 2020
Since Lichtman first released his model, he has successfully predicted the outcomes of several presidential elections, including the re-elections of Clinton, Bush and Obama. From 1984 to 2020, Lichtman's predictions have an accuracy rate of 90%. This makes his theory an important tool and reference in the political analysis community.
Challenges after 2020
However, starting in 2020, Lichtman’s path to prediction has taken twists and turns. On the eve of the 2024 presidential election, he expressed doubts about Joe Biden's re-election and fiercely fought back against opposition to his candidacy.
"Calling Biden to withdraw from the race is foolish and destructive, and will force the Democratic Party to make the wrong choice."
A watershed moment for the 2024 election
In 2024, as Biden announced his withdrawal from the election and Vice President Kamala Harris won the Democratic nomination, Lichtman predicted that Harris would win the election. However, the election result was unexpectedly won by Donald Trump, which caused him to face unprecedented doubts and reflections.
"This is the first time I've been wrong about my predictions. I didn't foresee Harris's support plummeting due to her debate performance."
The future and development of models
For future elections, Lichtman remains confident in his model, but also admits that the 2024 election will be an unusual turmoil. In his opinion, future elections should rely more on regular electoral procedures, and his model will be more accurate in this scenario.
The question is, can our country's political environment restore the rational choices of the past? As false information circulates on social media, is voters' judgment really being affected? These are questions worthy of our deep thought.
