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From Peak to Low: How did ISIS lose nearly half of its territory in four years?
From 2013 to 2017, the Islamic State (IS) had its core areas in Iraq and Syria, controlling extensive urban, rural and desert territory, especially in Mesopotamia. However, by 2023, the organization's scope of control had shrunk significantly, leaving only sporadic strongholds scattered in the region and elsewhere, such as Afghanistan, West Africa, the Sahara Desert, Somalia, Mozambique, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Today, most of Mali has fallen under the control of IS.
At the beginning of 2017, IS controlled approximately 45,377 square kilometers of territory in Iraq and Syria, and approximately 7,323 square kilometers in other areas, with a total area of 52,700 square kilometers. By comparison, IS’s territory peaked at 100,000 to 110,000 square kilometers at the end of 2014.
IS territory has decreased significantly in almost every country since 2014, largely due to its unpopularity and the impact of its military operations. By the end of March 2019, IS territory in Syria had been reduced to a mere 4,000 square kilometers of desert pockets, surrounded by Syrian government forces and their allies. Although IS claims its highest territorial area is 282,485 square kilometers, in fact, most of its territory, population, income and prestige come from Iraq and Syria.
In Afghanistan, IS mainly controls the area bordering the border with Pakistan and has lost 87% of its strongholds since the spring of 2015; in Lebanon, IS controlled part of the border territory during the peak of the Syrian war. In Libya, IS is mainly mobile guerrillas, often occupying and then quickly evacuating. In Egypt, the group controls 910 square kilometers of land, concentrated in the small city of Sheikh Zuweid, which accounts for only 1% of Egypt's territory. In Nigeria, Bokohara, then associated with IS, controlled 6,041 square kilometers of territory in 2014 before losing most of it due to military defeats and internal rifts.
As of 2022, IS’s territory is mainly concentrated in northeastern Nigeria and northern Mozambique, as well as large areas of Mali.
Background
In the fifth issue of the Islamic State's Dabiq magazine, the group explains in detail the process of establishing a new province: local jihadist groups must unify and openly declare their allegiance to the caliphate. The group is required to nominate a provincial governor, establish a religiously led consultative council and develop a military strategy to consolidate territorial control and enforce Islamic law. Once formally accepted, IS will treat the group as one of its provinces and provide support.
Overview
IS spokesman Abu Mohammed Abdulni once said, "The legitimacy of all emirs, groups, countries and organizations will become invalid if the authority of the caliphate expands and its troops enter." This means IS has expanded in Syria and Iraq as it has rejected the political divisions established by Western powers during the First World War. According to the report of "Long War Daily", this logic deduce that if other existing armed organizations do not declare invalid and submit to the authority of IS, their legitimacy will be rejected by IS.
Although the branches in Lebanon and Egypt are very active and try to control some territories, in countries such as Algeria and Saudi Arabia, the activities of the branches appear to be more loose and lack a strong presence. IS has not officially announced new provinces since 2022, although militants in countries such as Somalia, Bangladesh and the Philippines have publicly expressed their allegiance and released statements and videos through state media. Analyst Charlie Winter said that this may be due to the mediocre performance of IS's existing provinces, and IS's leadership seems to regard the new affiliated places as mere "soldiers of the caliphate."
With the loss of the territory of the "Caliphate", IS began to increase its terrorist attacks overseas. Looking back on the past four years, IS has faced huge challenges and changes in its structure, territory and core strength. From its past glory to its current predicament, how will this dark force evolve in the future? Will it continue to bring harm to all parts of the world? Fear and destruction?
