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The Evolution of Artificial Intelligence: Why Many Experts Predict AGI Is Coming?
With the rapid development of science and technology, the concept of superintelligence has gradually become the focus of people's attention. This is a hypothetical intelligent agent with abilities beyond any human intelligence. Many experts believe that we are not far away from creating such artificial intelligence (AGI), and it is worthy of further discussion.
“Superintelligence can be used to describe any intelligence that exceeds human cognitive performance in almost all fields.”
Specific characteristics of AGI
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) refers to systems that can demonstrate a high degree of intelligence in a variety of tasks. Compared to current domain-specific specialized AI systems, AGI has the ability to reason, learn and understand language. Many experts believe that when AGI appears, it will have a huge social impact and may trigger a technological singularity (Technological Singularity). This is not only an increase in intelligence, but also the beginning of mutual promotion and progress of intelligent systems.
Current progress in AI technology
In recent years, large language models (LLMs) based on the Transformer architecture, such as GPT-3, GPT-4, etc., have made significant progress in multiple tasks. The emergence of these models has led some researchers to believe that they may be close to or already exhibit certain characteristics of AGI. However, there is still controversy over this point. Critics point out that these models mainly embody deep pattern matching and lack real understanding.
"While current models are impressive, they still lack the understanding, reasoning, and ability to adapt in different domains necessary for full-scale intelligence."
The path to superintelligence
Philosopher David Chalmers points out that AGI is the most likely path to superintelligence. He believes that by continuously expanding and optimizing existing AI systems, especially Transformer-based models, we may find a feasible way to superintelligence. An approach advocated by some researchers involves mixing different AI methods, perhaps creating more powerful and capability-rich systems.
Potential advantages of artificial intelligence
Artificial intelligence has significant advantages over human intelligence in many aspects:
- Speediness: Computer components run much faster than biological neurons.
- Scalability: The computing power of AI systems can be expanded more easily than biological brains.
- Memory: AI systems can achieve perfect recall and a huge knowledge base.
- Multi-tasking: AI systems can perform multiple tasks at the same time, which is something that living organisms cannot do.
The feasibility of biological superintelligence
Some experts have suggested that the evolution of biological intelligence may also lead to higher intelligence. Through artificial means such as genetic enhancement or neuroaugmentation, human intelligence potential may be further developed. Although the scientific consensus here has not yet been reached, the way to enhance intelligence is a hot topic of debate among all parties.
Future Forecast
According to surveys, most artificial intelligence researchers believe that machines will eventually be able to rival humans in intelligence in the future. While there is still disagreement about when this will happen, there is a common expectation for Niu Niu reinvention in the future. Recent predictions indicate that over the next few decades, superintelligence technology may further mature and even potentially emerge very soon.
“Many AI researchers are optimistic about the arrival of superintelligence and believe that human intelligence will be simulated in the near future.”
Design considerations
The design of super-intelligent AI systems has triggered a lot of thinking. How should the values and goals of the model be positioned? Some proposals, such as "Consistent Elaboration Willingness" (CEV) and Moral Correctness (MR), try to explore the attributes and behavioral principles that ideal AI should have.
Potential threats
With the further development of artificial intelligence, potential existential risks have become increasingly concerning. As AI systems become more and more powerful, how to design safe AI systems and avoid accidental harm will be a major challenge that must be overcome in the future.
"As we create the first superintelligent entity, we may make mistakes, give it purpose, and ultimately risk the extinction of the human race."
With the advancement of technology, the arrival of AGI seems to be just around the corner, so how should we prepare for this new era?
