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The Mysterious Fertility Rate: Why is global fertility declining so sharply, and what does it mean for the future?
Over time, there has been an alarming decline in global fertility rates. According to the United Nations' 2022 forecast, the global annual population growth rate has plummeted from 2.3% in 1963 to 0.9% in 2023, and it is expected that negative growth may occur by 2100. What does this change mean for future human development and the economic status of various countries?
"If education and family planning are not continuously improved, the global fertility rate will directly affect the future social structure and resource allocation."
The global fertility rate has dropped to an average of 2.5 children per woman, and the United Nations predicts that this number will drop to 1.8 by 2100. Behind this change, we reflect the challenges and opportunities faced by many countries, especially in Africa. What is even more significant is that according to a United Nations report, before 2050, global population growth will almost entirely come from less developed countries, with growth in sub-Saharan Africa being particularly prominent.
Under this circumstance, many economists and sociologists have begun to pay attention to Africa's fertility problem, because predictions show that Africa's population will double by 2050, and more than half of all births will come from this region . According to relevant research, this has also led to the fact that almost all children in the future will be born in Africa. What impact will this have on regional and global society?
"Changing demographic trends mean the need for more dynamic policies and plans to address the social and economic challenges that may arise in the future."
According to a United Nations report, future growth in the region will enable Nigeria's total population to surpass that of the United States in 2050. How will such changes affect the global geopolitical and economic landscape? Within the forecast framework, changes in fertility rates in different countries have become an important factor leading future economic growth.
Drivers of global population growth
Changes in global population are driven primarily by three factors: fertility, mortality, and migration. In particular, changes in fertility rates will directly affect future population structure.
“With the improvement of women’s education level and the popularization of family planning, the fertility rate is expected to decline further.”
Changes in fertility rates
Currently, the global total fertility rate (TFR) level is forecast to fall to below replacement level of 1.8, and this change will occur mainly in low- and middle-income countries. At the same time, changes in women's level of education and socioeconomic conditions will drive the fertility rate down. This means that in the next dozen years, changes in fertility will be the main regulator of population growth, especially in Africa.
In this context, how countries adjust their policies to adapt to future changes in demographic structure will have an important impact on government policy formulation, social security systems, and economic development.
The impact of mortality
With the advancement of medical technology, the global mortality rate has dropped significantly in recent decades, and life expectancy has been significantly extended. Today, however, changes in mortality are having a diminishing impact on population growth. In this case, fertility rate has become a key factor affecting future population growth. Especially in countries with declining fertility rates, how will the future population structure change?
Changes in Immigration
Immigration is also a key factor affecting demographic structure. International migration flows have accelerated population growth in some areas, particularly in countries with faster economic growth. Changes in social structure and economic growth will be affected by the inflow of immigrants, which not only affects the population structure, but also affects the economic policies of various countries and the distribution of social welfare.
"The future social structure will revolve around changes in fertility rates and the impact of immigration flows."
Historically, economic growth has often been accompanied by changes in fertility rates, a phenomenon that is particularly evident in Africa. As education becomes more popular and awareness of reproductive rights rises, the fertility rate may decline further in the future. This trend will lead to significant differences in fertility and population structure between Africa and other regions, which will have a major impact on global resource distribution, social development and geopolitics.
Future Outlook
Experts still have considerable differences in their predictions about future global fertility and population changes. Some studies believe that the population will increase to 8.1 billion in 2024, 9.6 billion in 2050, and is more likely to exceed the key figure of 1 billion in 2100. However, all this depends on the joint impact of economic, social and environmental policies throughout the world.
In such a rapidly changing context, the ecological and economic impacts of population growth cannot be underestimated. How countries formulate corresponding policies to deal with this change will become an important challenge in the future of the world. Will this affect the sustainable development direction of mankind?
