Estimation of 1-Year Changes in Medicaid Expenditures Associated With Reducing Cigarette Smoking Prevalence by 1%

Abstract

Key Points Question What are the expected changes to Medicaid costs the following year associated with reducing absolute cigarette smoking prevalence in each state by 1%? Findings This economic evaluation found that, based on observed short-run elasticity between changes in smoking and health care expenditures, estimated Medicaid savings in the year following a 1% reduction of smoking prevalence would total $2.6 billion, with median state savings of $25 million. Meaning Reducing cigarette smoking could contribute to lowering Medicaid costs in the short run.