Development of COVIDVax Model to Estimate the Risk of SARS-CoV-2–Related Death Among 7.6 Million US Veterans for Use in Vaccination Prioritization

Abstract

Key Points Question How can the risk of SARS-CoV-2–related death be estimated in the general population to be used for vaccination prioritization? Findings In this prognostic study of more than 7.6 million individuals enrolled in the Veterans Affairs health care system, a logistic regression model (COVIDVax) was developed to estimate risk of SARS-CoV-2–related death using the following 10 characteristics: sex, age, race, ethnicity, body mass index, Charlson Comorbidity Index, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, congestive heart failure, and the Care Assessment Need score. The model was estimated to save more lives than prioritizing vaccination based on age or on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention vaccination allocation. Meaning These findings suggest that prioritizing vaccination based on the model developed in this study could prevent a substantial number of SARS-CoV-2–related deaths during vaccine rollout.