Evaluation of bias on the probability of collapse from amplitude scaling using spectral‐shape‐matched records

Abstract

Earthquake Engng Struct Dyn. 2019;1–17. Summary Although for many years it was thought that amplitude scaling of acceleration time series to reach a target intensity did not introduce any bias in the results of nonlinear response history analyses, recent studies have showed that scaling can lead to an overestimation of deformation demands with increasing scale factors. Some studies have suggested that the bias can be explained by differences in spectral shape between the response spectra of unscaled and scaled records. On the basis of these studies, some record selection procedures assume that if records are selected using spectral‐shape‐matching procedures, amplitude scaling does not induce any bias on the structural response. This study evaluates if bias is introduced on lateral displacement demands and seismic collapse risk estimates even when spectral shape is carefully taken into consideration when selecting ground motions. Several single‐degree‐of‐freedom and multiple‐degree‐of‐freedom systems are analyzed when subjected to unscaled and scaled ground motions selected to approximately match the mean and the variance of the conditional spectrum at the target level of intensity. Results show that an explicit consideration of spectral shape is not enough to avoid a systematic overestimation of lateral displacement demands and collapse probabilities as the scale factor increases. Moreover, the bias is observed in practically all cases for systems with strength degradation and it increases with decreasing period and decreasing lateral strength relative to the strength required to remain elastic. Key reasons behind the bias are presented by evaluating input energy, causal parameters, and damaging pulse distributions in unscaled and scaled ground motion sets.