Modeling climate change effects on spatial distribution of wild Aegilops L. (Poaceae) toward food security management and biodiversity conservation in Iran.

Abstract

The demand for food resources is increasing quickly because of growth in human populations; therefore, food security may become one of the largest human challenges of this century. Crop wild relatives (CWRs) are the most valuable plant genetic resources (PGR) for the conservation of genetic diversity in crops. However, climate change is an added pressure on biodiversity, particularly on this valuable group of plants. It is predicted that over 50% of this group may be lost by 2055 due to climate change impacts. Iran is considered a highly ranked country in terms of conservation priorities for CWRs in the world. This study has investigated the impacts of climate change on Aegilops L. as important CWRs. MaxEnt was applied to predict the spatial distribution of seven Aegilops species under different climatic scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) of 2050 and 2080. According to the findings, all species showed reduction or expansion responses under all the above-mentioned climatic scenarios. However, the range change was negative for some species (i.e. A. columnaris, A. cylindrica, A. speltoides, A. tauschii (in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080) and A. kotschyi (RCP 2.6 2050 and 2080)) and positive for others (i.e. A. crassa, A. triuncialis (in all scenarios of 2050 and 2080) and A. kotschyi (RCP 8.5 2050 and 2080)). The results of this study emphasize the need for conservation plans for the country s genetic resources, including regular monitoring and assessment of ecological and demographic changes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.