Personalise vitamin D3 using physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling

Abstract

Plasma concentration of vitamin D3 metabolite 25‐hydroxyvitamin D3 (25(OH)D3) is variable among individuals. The objective of this study is to establish an accurate model for 25(OH)D3 pharmacokinetics (PKs) to support selection of a suitable dose regimen for an individual. We collated vitamin D3 and 25(OH)D3 plasma PK data from reported clinical trials and developed a physiologically‐based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to appropriately recapitulate training data. Model predictions were then qualified with 25(OH)D3 plasma PKs under vitamin D3 and 25(OH)D3 dose regimens distinct from training data. From data exploration, we observed the increase in plasma 25(OH)D3 after repeated dosing was negatively correlated with 25(OH)D3 baseline levels. Our final model included a first‐order vitamin D3 absorption, a first‐order vitamin D3 metabolism, and a nonlinear 25(OH)D3 elimination function. This structure explained the apparent paradox. Remarkably, the model accurately predicted plasma 25(OH)D3 following repeated dosing up to 1250 μg/d in the test set. It also made sensible predictions for large single vitamin D3 doses up to 50,000 μg in the test set. Model predicts 10 μg/d regimen may be ineffective for achieving sufficiency (plasma 25(OH)D3 ≥ 75 nmol/L) for a severely deficient individual (baseline 25(OH)D3 = 10 nmol/L), and it might take the same person over 200 days to reach sufficiency at 20 μg/d dose. We propose to personalize vitamin D3 supplementation protocol with this PBPK model. It would require measuring 25(OH)D3 baseline levels, which is not routinely performed under the current UK public health advice.