Propensity score trimming mitigates bias due to covariate measurement error in inverse probability of treatment weighted analyses: A plasmode simulation.

Abstract

BACKGROUND\nInverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) may be biased by influential observations, which can occur from misclassification of strong exposure predictors.\n\n\nMETHODS\nWe evaluated bias and precision of IPTW estimators in the presence of a misclassified confounder and assessed the effect of propensity score (PS) trimming. We generated 1000 plasmode cohorts of size N\xa0=\xa010\u2009000, sampled with replacement from 6063 NHANES respondents (1999-2014) age 40 to 79 with labs and no statin use. We simulated statin exposure as a function of demographics and CVD risk factors; and outcomes as a function of 10-year CVD risk score and statin exposure (rate ratio [RR]\xa0=\xa00.5). For 5% of the people in selected populations (eg, all patients, exposed, those with outcomes), we randomly misclassified a confounder that strongly predicted exposure. We fit PS models and estimated RRs using IPTW and 1:1 PS matching, with and without asymmetric trimming.\n\n\nRESULTS\nIPTW bias was substantial when misclassification was differential by outcome (RR range: 0.38-0.63) and otherwise minimal (RR range: 0.51-0.53). However, trimming reduced bias for IPTW, nearly eliminating it at 5% trimming (RR range: 0.49-0.52). In one scenario, when the confounder was misclassified for 5% of those with outcomes (0.3% of cohort), untrimmed IPTW was more biased and less precise (RR\xa0=\xa00.37 [SE(logRR)\xa0=\xa00.21]) than matching (RR\xa0=\xa00.50 [SE(logRR)\xa0=\xa00.13]). After 1% trimming, IPTW estimates were unbiased and more precise (RR\xa0=\xa00.49 [SE(logRR)\xa0=\xa00.12]) than matching (RR\xa0=\xa00.51 [SE(logRR)\xa0=\xa00.14]).\n\n\nCONCLUSIONS\nDifferential misclassification of a strong predictor of exposure resulted in biased and imprecise IPTW estimates. Asymmetric trimming reduced bias, with more precise estimates than matching.