Estimating the reproducibility of psychotherapy effects in mood and anxiety disorders: the possible utility of multicenter trials

Abstract

445 ed submission on prior registration, prospective registration is implemented in only 40% of trials of psychotherapies for depression. Among prospectively registered trials, 25% displayed discrepancies between registration and publications, and for 17% we judged these discrepancies as favoring statistical significance. Though relatively few, trials with selective reporting were associated with considerably larger effectiveness, when combined in a meta-analysis. Effect sizes diverged by a SMD of 0.27 between trials with and without selective reporting. For reference, selective publication of trials of psychotherapies for depression has been associated with differences in effectiveness of 0.32. Trials with non-reporting of registered outcomes or addition of non-registered ones emerged as the main drivers of effect size inflation. These data suggest that lack of prior registration and discrepancies between registration and publications remain common in trials of psychotherapies for depression, and are associated with an inflation of effect sizes in those trials, contributing to the current uncertainties in assessing the outcomes of psychological interventions. Clara Miguel, Eirini Karyotaki, Pim Cuijpers, Ioana A. Cristea Department of Clinical, Neuro and Developmental Psychology, Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands; Department of Brain and Behavioral Sciences, University of Pavia, Pavia, Italy; IRCCS Mondino Foundation, Pavia, Italy