The Impact of Driverless Vehicles on Transportation Costs in Road Haulage: A System Dynamical Approach

Abstract

Costs are a decisive competitive advantage in the logistics industry. For this reason, companies are constantly striving to reduce these costs. Driverless driving offers an opportunity to support this endeavor and also to counteract the increasing shortage of drivers. However, the interactions between logistics costs and driverless vehicles in road haulage that exist have not been considered much at the moment. The aim of this study is to identify the interactions in the system of automated driving with logistics costs by using a system dynamical approach. The use of a system dynamics approach serves not only to carry out constant calculations, but also to record dynamic changes in the system. For this purpose, a theoretical and a simulation model are developed to identify qualitative as well as quantitative impacts in the system of driverless road haulage. The theoretical model shows not only the elements that are relevant in the system, but also possible rebound effects that can stabilize or even destabilize the system. In addition, the simulation model serves to take a closer look at the individual costs that can be relevant for transportation. Both models showed possible advantages and disadvantages that can occur due to automated driving. It is therefore important to put the elements of a system in an overall context to understand the dependencies between them.