Combating Low Life Expectancy and Low Fertility in Tumultuous Political Times: A Comparison of the Ukraine, Russia and Belarus

Abstract

Through the three key drivers of demographic change—fertility, ageing and migration—this chapter explores the interconnections between the population changes and politics in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine by combining two research disciplines—demography and political science. After providing a comparative account for each critical driver of population change, the authors explore the ad hoc government policy interventions intended to cope with the dramatic shift in population composition. The ageing trend forces governments to adopt unpopular pension reforms, undermining popular support of the current regimes in Belarus and Russia among elderly citizens. Besides, these societies are simultaneously experiencing population ageing and population decline caused by a lower fertility rate and higher mortality. Even though in the last decade there has been a noticeable improvement in the situation, the tremendous lag behind the developed nations in life span makes the phenomenon of population ageing particularly distinctive for the post-Soviet countries. Finally, migration trends remain erratic, being subject to international and regional political strategies. Recognizing the politics of population change, the authors argue that the challenges faced by the authoritarian regimes are often the top concerns in policy-making in cases of Belarus and Russia. Ukraine, barred with political instability, is missing to curb demographic volatility affected by the 1.5 million IDPs after the crises.