Fast-Track Towards a Hegemonic Transition? COVID-19 and the Decline of US Hegemony

Abstract

The Corona outbreak presents an unprecedented external shock to global health and the world economy. This chapter argues that different national actors showed varied responses towards the pandemic due to their specific domestic institutional setting and dominant societal preferences. In turn, the degree to which different actors were able to tackle the crisis impacts their ability and/or willingness to cooperate on the international level. Put differently, the pandemic reconstitutes the current hegemonic order by forcing states to enact specific economic and social policies and by enlarging or curtailing their power and influence internationally. The analysis reveals that the pandemic undermined the ability of the United States to provide international leadership that would have helped to maintain its hegemonic position. Domestically, the US was severely hit by staggering numbers of infections and deaths, laying bare the deficiencies of its health care system and the unwillingness of purposeful intervention. At the same time, China’s swift economic recovery enabled its leadership to further its international ambitions, portraying itself as a state that commands the necessary means to fight pandemics domestically and as a global health provider. Furthermore, the pandemic also entails implications for international institutions—in particular the World Health Organization. Here, the Trump administration withdrew its support while China continued to expand its influence within the organization. The case study thus suggests that the pandemic served as a catalyst for a hegemonic transition as it accelerated the decline of the US relative to its peer competitor.