Scenarios of Development of Industry 4.0 in the Conditions of Knowledge Economy’s Formation and Their Consequences for Modern Economic Systems

Abstract

The purpose of the chapter is to determine the main possible scenarios of development of Industry 4.0 in the conditions of knowledge economy’s formation and to determine their consequences for modern economic systems. The methodology of the research, which is conducted in this chapter, is based on using the method of macro-economic scenario analysis. This analysis is of the qualitative character, as it is performed not by the example of specific socio-economic systems but abstract (generalized) modern economic systems. This method is supplemented by analysis of causal connections and the method of formalization of scientific data. The performed analysis allowed determining the main scenarios of development of Industry 4.0 in the conditions of knowledge economy’s formation and showed that their consequences could be different. Lack of statistical data and experience of formation and development of Industry 4.0 is a basis for setting the same probability for all distinguished scenarios. The most pessimistic scenario is the one envisaging implementation of hidden threats to the concept of Industry 4.0 in the process of its practical implementation, as its consequences are imbalance and crisis of economic systems and of the global economy on the whole. There’s also scenario that envisages impossibility of practical implementation of the concept of Industry 4.0. It belongs to pessimistic scenarios, as it is related to implementation of innovational macro-economic project—formation of Industry 4.0. Optimistic scenarios include turning Industry 4.0 into the tool of formation of knowledge economy, which could be accompanied by appearance of large problems and their absence, which determine the time period of implementation of these scenarios. Positive consequences of these scenarios for modern economic systems are related to stimulation of quick formation of knowledge economy. The most optimistic scenario is the one that envisages implementation of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, related to transition to Industry 4.0, on the basis of knowledge economy. Consequences of this scenario include the change of technological mode, innovational development of economic systems, and studying anti-crisis effect.