Railway capacity calculation in emergency using modified fuzzy random optimization methodology

Abstract

Accurate estimated capacity of the railway section can provide reliable information to railway operators and engineers in decision-making, particularly, in an emergency situation. However, in an emergency, the optimization of capacity of a railway section is usually involved to study, for example, the characteristics of dynamic, fuzziness, randomness, and non-aftereffect properties. This paper presents a proposed capacity calculation method based on the modified fuzzy Markov chain (MFMC). In this method, the capacity of a railway section in an emergency can be expressed by a fuzzy random variable, which remains the randomness of capacity changing according to the impact of emergencies and the fuzziness of the driving behavior and other factors. A case study of a high-speed line from Beijing to Shanghai is used to show the process of the proposed methods for optimization of section capacity calculation in an emergency.