Forecasting Probable Spread Estimation of COVID-19 Using Exponential Smoothing Technique and Basic Reproduction Number in Indian Context

Abstract

The ongoing pandemic of COVID-19 has shut down almost everything and it has become troublesome for smooth running of social life. The infections are increasing day by day. It is important to predict and forecast upcoming increase in infections to plan better. Predicting the possible spread can alert the COVID-19 fighters fighting from the front end as well as the common people. This study is about forecasting possible spread of COVID-19 in India using Exponential Smoothing technique and estimated spread based on Basic Reproduction Number (\\(R_0\\)). \\(R_0\\) is a sign of transmissibility of a virus. It represents the average number of new infections produced by an infectious person in a completely naive population. Also, this study has focused on forecasting the number of future infections to occur in various states of India. The forecasting and estimation has been carried out for 12 (Twelve) days from August 18, 2020 to August 29, 2020. These forecasted and estimated values show that Maharashtra will experience highest number of confirmed cases followed by Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and West Bengal. Mizoram will experience least number of cases. This study can help the government and concerned authorities to make good work plan and prepare them for executing the same as per the requirement of states.