Testing the performance of dendroclimatic process-based models at global scale with the PAGES2k tree-ring width database

Abstract

Tree-rings are one of the most commonly used proxies for reconstructing past climates at annual resolution. The climate information is generally deduced from tree-rings using statistical relationships, but the assumed linearity and stationarity may be inadequate. Process-based models allow for non-stationarity and non-linearity; however, many challenges are associated with their application for global scale reconstructions. In this study, we aim to test the feasibility of using the mechanistic model MAIDEN at the global scale for paleoclimate reconstructions based on data assimilation by applying it to the PAGES2k tree-ring width database. We also compare its performance with the simpler model VS-Lite, often used in global applications. Both models are skillful in terms of calibration and verification correlations for a similar number of sites (63 and 64 for VS-Lite and MAIDEN, respectively). VS-Lite tends to perform better for sites where the climate signal in tree-rings is strong and clear. By contrast, MAIDEN’s performance is likely mostly limited by the lack of data (for example, daily Gross Primary Production data or phenological timings) needed to accurately calibrate the model. However, when the calibration is robust, both models reproduce well the observed link between climate and tree-growth. In general, VS-Lite tends to overestimate the climate signal in tree-rings compared to MAIDEN, which better reproduces the magnitude of the climate signal on average. Our results show that both models are complementary and can be applied at the global scale to reconstruct past climates using an adequate protocol designed to exploit existing tree-ring data.