Validation and performance of a machine-learning derived prediction guide for total knee arthroplasty component sizing

Abstract

Anticipation of patient-specific component sizes prior to total knee arthroplasty (TKA) is essential to avoid excessive cost associated with additional surgical trays and morbidity associated with imperfect sizing. Current methods of size prediction, including templating, are inconsistent and time-consuming. Machine learning (ML) algorithms may allow for accurate TKA component size prediction with the ability to make predictions in real-time. Consecutive patients receiving primary TKA between 2012 and 2020 from two large tertiary academic and six community hospitals were identified. The primary outcomes were the final femoral and tibial component sizes extracted from automated inventory systems. Five ML algorithms were trained with routinely corrected demographic variables (age, height, weight, body mass index, and sex) using 80% of the study population and internally validated on an independent set of the remaining 20% of patients. Algorithm performance was evaluated through accuracy, mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean-squared error (RMSE). A total of 17,283 patients that received one of 9 TKA implants from independent manufacturers were included. The SGB model accuracy for predicting\u2009±\u20094-mm of the true femoral anteroposterior diameter was 83.6% and for\u2009±\u20091 size of the true femoral component size was 95.0%. The SGB model accuracy for predicting\u2009±\u20094-mm of the true tibial medial/lateral diameter was 83.0% and for\u2009±\u20091 size of the true tibial component size was 97.8%. Patient sex was the most influential feature in terms of informing the SGB model predictions for both femoral and tibial component sizing. A TKA implant sizing application was subsequently created. Novel machine learning algorithms demonstrated good to excellent performance for predicting TKA component size. Patient sex appears to contribute an important role in predicting TKA size. A web-based real-time prediction application was created capable of integrating patient specific data to predict TKA size, which will require external validation prior to clinical use.