Contextual contact tracing based on stochastic compartment modeling and spatial risk assessment

Abstract

The current situation of COVID-19 highlights the paramount importance of infectious disease surveillance, which necessitates early monitoring for effective response. Policymakers are interested in data insights identifying high-risk areas as well as individuals to be quarantined, especially as the public gets back to their normal routine. We investigate both requirements by the implementation of disease outbreak modeling and exploring its induced dynamic spatial risk in form of risk assessment, along with its real-time integration back into the disease model. This paper implements a contact tracing-based stochastic compartment model as a baseline, to further modify the existing setup to include the spatial risk. This modification of each individual-level contact’s intensity to be dependent on its spatial location has been termed as Contextual Contact Tracing. The results highlight that the inclusion of spatial context tends to send more individuals into quarantine which reduces the overall spread of infection. With a simulated example of an induced spatial high-risk, it is highlighted that the new spatio-SIR model can act as a tool to empower the analyst with a capability to explore disease dynamics from a spatial perspective. We conclude that the proposed spatio-SIR tool can be of great help for policymakers to know the consequences of their decision prior to their implementation.