Prediction of dominant daily modes of the Indian summer monsoon in the NCEP GFS model

Abstract

The prediction capability of dominant daily monsoon modes of Indian summer monsoon in the forecast of the Global Forecast System Version 2 (GFSv2) model is scrutinized. The dominant monsoon modes are procured by performing the multichannel singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) on daily precipitation anomalies of the Indian summer monsoon region (60–100°E, Eq.-35°N) during 2001–2014. The observation has one seasonally persistent mode and two intraseasonal oscillations with periods around 42 and 26 days, and the model has correctly simulated these modes. The spatial structure of the phase composites of the precipitation anomalies of the intraseasonal modes of the model is almost similar to the observed spatial pattern with slightly less magnitude of the precipitation anomalies over Western India and the core monsoon zone. The spatial structure of the 26-day mode is similar to the spatial structure of the 42-day mode with less magnitude of the precipitation anomalies all over the study domain. The lead forecast of the model demonstrates the robust predictive skill of intraseasonal modes. The variation of the active and break spells of monsoon precipitation over the Indian subcontinent is captured accurately by the contribution of both intraseasonal modes. The observed eastward and northward propagation features of the Indian summer monsoon have been accurately simulated by the model. The model has weak seasonally persistent signals over Western India, northeast India, and eastern land regions adjacent to the Western Ghats. The seasonally persistent mode shows a strong relationship with the equatorial central Pacific Ocean SSTs and a moderate correlation with the Indian and Atlantic Ocean SSTs. The seasonally persistent mode contributes largely to the seasonal precipitation anomalies over the Indian monsoon region.