Spatial–temporal distribution of air-pollution-intensive industries and its social-economic driving mechanism in Zhejiang Province, China: a framework of spatial econometric analysis

Abstract

The distribution of pollution-intensive industries is a serious challenge to environmental governance of China during the transition period. However, existing studies lack the attention to the distribution and driving factors of air-pollution-intensive industries (APIIs). Therefore, based on geospatial analysis and spatial measurement models, this study explored the spatial distribution of APIIs and their socioeconomic driving factors in Zhejiang Province from 2006 to 2018. The results show that (1) the output value of APIIs in Zhejiang showed a trend of first increasing and then slowly decreasing, indicating the industry structure has a tendency toward improvement; (2) the spatial agglomeration of APIIs in Zhejiang Province has a positive spatial correlation (significant at least at the level of 10%), and the main agglomeration areas are located in cities around Hangzhou Bay, but the overall level of agglomeration is decreasing and shows a certain diffusion trend. (3) APIIs in Zhejiang Province have significant industry differences. Industries with a high degree of concentration are mainly petroleum processing, coking, nuclear fuel processing, chemical fiber manufacturing and textile, all with the Gini coefficient exceeding 0.5. (4) The improvement of labor force, capital investment, international trade level and infrastructure level will aggravate the distribution of APIIs, while technological innovation, environmental regulation and foreign investment can effectively suppress and reduce the output value of regional APIIs. In particular, for every 1% increase in technological innovation, the output value of APIIs will decrease by 0.113%, and it will also have a significant reduction effect on neighboring cities. In the future, Zhejiang needs to fully rely on technological innovation capabilities to drive the development of green industries and the upgrading of traditional manufacturing industries.