Spatial–temporal variations of carbon storage of the global forest ecosystem under future climate change

Abstract

Forests play an important role in sequestrating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Therefore, in order to understand the spatial–temporal variations and controlling mechanisms of global forest carbon (C) storage under future climate change, an improved individual-based forest ecosystem carbon budget model and remote sensing outputs in this study were applied to investigate the spatial–temporal dynamics of global forest (vegetation+soil) C storage in the future climate change scenario. The results showed that in the future RCP4.5 (representative concentration pathways) climate scenario, the total C storage per unit area per year in vegetation and soil of the global forest ecosystem showed a trend of first decreasing and then increasing from 2006 to 2100, with an average of 22.77 kg C m−2 year−1. However, the evolution trends of C storage changes in vegetation and soil were different. Moreover, the average soil C storage per unit area per year was 2.87 times higher than the average vegetation C storage. The impact of climate change on total C storage in vegetation and soil of the global forest ecosystems was positive, showing an obvious increase during 2006–2100. The total C storage varied significantly in spatial distribution. Spatially, the vegetation C storage and the soil organic C storage were projected to decrease significantly in most parts of South America and southern Africa in the Southern Hemisphere and increase in eastern North America, western Asia, and most areas of Europe in the Northern Hemisphere. Especially in the middle and high latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere, the total forest C stock was projected to increase by 30–90% from 2046 to 2100. In the future, in these areas where forest C reserves were predicted to be reduced, it was suggested to increase afforestation, prohibit deforestation, and develop projects to increase forest C. Sustainable forest managements also offered opportunities for immediate mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Our findings provided not only a projection of C storage of global forest ecosystem responses to future climate change but also a useful methodology for estimating forest C storage at global levels.