Spatial distribution and convergence of provincial carbon intensity in China and its influencing factors: a spatial panel analysis from 2000 to 2017

Abstract

Unbalanced and inadequate development in China has resulted in significant temporal and spatial differences in carbon intensity, impeding the achievement of carbon reduction targets. This paper explores the spatial distribution and convergence of China’s provincial carbon intensity during 2000–2017 and its influencing factors employing spatial panel techniques. The spatial distribution analysis supports the existence of significant spatial agglomeration and radiation effects in China’s provincial carbon intensity, and several provinces play key roles in the spatial distribution of carbon intensity, which are an important focus of carbon emission reduction policies. The results of spatial convergence estimation support that China’s provincial carbon intensity presents significant spatial absolute and conditional convergence, and after considering regional differences, the spatial convergence speed is significantly accelerated. Meanwhile, economic level, urbanization, energy consumption structure, and industrial structure have significant spatial radiation effects on carbon intensity, and carbon intensity itself also has a spatial diffusion effect, indicating that carbon emission reduction requires multi-regional coordinated actions. This paper examined the spatial distribution and convergence of China’s provincial carbon intensities over 2000–2017. The empirical findings verified the spatial agglomeration and radiation effects, as well as the absolute and conditional spatial convergence of China’s provincial carbon intensities, which supports the policy-making related to the carbon reduction in China. This paper examined the spatial distribution and convergence of China’s provincial carbon intensities over 2000–2017. The empirical findings verified the spatial agglomeration and radiation effects, as well as the absolute and conditional spatial convergence of China’s provincial carbon intensities, which supports the policy-making related to the carbon reduction in China.