Kinetics and Monte Carlo simulation of UV disinfection of B. subtilis spores and SARS-CoV-2 in dried saliva droplets

Abstract

Surfaces can be contaminated by droplets produced through coughing or sneezing. In this exploratory work, the UV disinfection results of Bacillus subtilis spores in dried saliva droplets were fitted to a three-parameter kinetic model (R2 ≥ 0.97). This model has a disinfection rate constant for single organisms and a smaller one for aggregates found in droplets. The fraction of organisms found in aggregates (β) could account for the effects of different-sized droplets in the experimental work. Since a wide spectrum of droplet sizes can be produced, and some of the rate constants were uncertain, Monte Carlo simulation was used to estimate the UV inactivation performance in dried saliva droplets in a variety of conditions. Using conservative distribution for β, the model was applied to the UV disinfection of SARS-CoV-2 in dried saliva droplets. It was shown that a one-log reduction of SARS-CoV-2 was very likely (p>99.9%) and a two-log reduction was probable (p=75%) at a dose of 60 mJ/cm2. Aggregates tend to be variable and limit the log reductions that can be achieved at high UV doses.