Stochastic earthquake source model for ground motion simulation

Abstract

In the analysis and design of important structures with relatively long life spans, there is a need to generate strong motion data for possible large events. The source of an earthquake is characterized by the spatial distribution of slip on the fault plane. For future events, this is unknown. In this paper, a stochastic earthquake source model is developed to address this issue. Here, 1D and 2D stochastic models for slip distribution developed by Lavallée et al. (2006) are used. The random field associated with the slip distribution is heavy-tailed stable distribution which can be used for large events. Using 236 past rupture models, the spectral scaling parameter and the four stable or Levy’s parameters against empirical relationship for known quantities like magnitude or fault length are developed. The model is validated with data from 411 stations of 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake. The simulated response spectrum showed good agreement to actual data. Further the proposed model is used to generate ground motion for the 1993 Killari Earthquake where strong motion data is not available. The simulated mean peak ground velocity was in turn related to the intensity (MSK) and compared against values in the literature.