Urbanization and urban fire dynamics using GIS and remote sensing: a case study in the city of Nagpur, India

Abstract

Urbanization leading to urban expansion and densification of urban centers has increased the vulnerability of fire risks and is challenging for the fundamental public services of fire. The study, analytically evaluated the historical fire incident dataset to explore the urban fire dynamics with potential dimensions of space and time, adopting a statistical regression model with ANOVA test for temporal analysis, and the spatial statistical technique in geographic information systems (GIS), and remote sensing (RS) techniques for spatial analysis. Temporal analysis results statistically proved the association of fire incidents with urbanizing population growth and weather conditions, identifying the peak period of fire occurrence during hot afternoon hours. The spatial analysis assessed the potential fire risk areas identifying the hotspot area by the Getis-Ord Gi* technique in the central and extending towards the eastern part of the city. Quantification of all identified significant fire risk areas with population densities was evaluated from the land use land cover (LULC) built environment for accuracy, helping decision-makers deploy immediate resource allocation and proactive planning. The application of the study output has the potential to assess the probable high-risk areas of similar cities of developing countries upgrading the NDMA requirement to build urban resilient infrastructure in accord with Smart City Mission.