Mathematical prediction of the spreading rate of COVID-19 using entropy-based thermodynamic model

Abstract

In the COVID-19 pandemic era, undoubtedly mathematical modeling helps epidemiological scientists and authorities to take informing decisions about pandemic planning, wise resource allocation, introducing relevant non-pharmaceutical interventions and implementation of social distancing measures. The current coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in the end of 2019, Wuhan, China, spreads quickly in the world. In this study, an entropy-based thermodynamic model has been used for predicting and spreading the rate of COVID-19. In our model, all the epidemic details were considered into a single time-dependent parameter. The parameter was analytically determined using four constraints, including the existence of an inflexion point and a maximum value. Our model has been layout-based the Shannon entropy and the maximum rate of entropy production of postulated complex system. The results show that our proposed model fits well with the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in daily basis. Also, as a matter of fact that Shannon entropy is an intersection of information, probability theory, (non)linear dynamical systems and statistical physics, the proposed model in this study can be further calibrated to fit much better on COVID-19 observational data, using the above formalisms.