A machine learning risk model based on preoperative computed tomography scan to predict postoperative outcomes after pancreatoduodenectomy

Abstract

Clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula (CR-POPF) is a life-threatening complication following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Individualized preoperative risk assessment could improve clinical management and prevent or mitigate adverse outcomes. The aim of this study is to develop a machine learning risk model to predict occurrence of CR-POPF after PD from preoperative computed tomography (CT) scans. A total of 100 preoperative high-quality CT scans of consecutive patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy in our institution between 2011 and 2019 were analyzed. Radiomic and morphological features extracted from CT scans related to pancreatic anatomy and patient characteristics were included as variables. These data were then assessed by a machine learning classifier to assess the risk of developing CR-POPF. Among the 100 patients evaluated, 20 had CR-POPF. The predictive model based on logistic regression demonstrated specificity of 0.824 (0.133) and sensitivity of 0.571 (0.337), with an AUC of 0.807 (0.155), PPV of 0.468 (0.310) and NPV of 0.890 (0.084). The performance of the model minimally decreased utilizing a random forest approach, with specificity of 0.914 (0.106), sensitivity of 0.424 (0.346), AUC of 0.749 (0.209), PPV of 0.502 (0.414) and NPV of 0.869 (0.076). Interestingly, using the same data, the model was also able to predict postoperative overall complications and a postoperative length of stay over the median with AUCs of 0.690 (0.209) and 0.709 (0.160), respectively. These findings suggest that preoperative CT scans evaluated by machine learning may provide a novel set of information to help clinicians choose a tailored therapeutic pathway in patients candidated to pancreatoduodenectomy.