Utility of predictive tools for risk stratification of elderly individuals with all-cause acute respiratory infection

Abstract

PurposeA number of scoring tools have been developed to predict illness severity and patient outcome for proven pneumonia, however, less is known about the utility of clinical prediction scores for all-cause acute respiratory infection (ARI), especially in elderly subjects who are at increased risk of poor outcomes.MethodsWe retrospectively analyzed risk factors and outcomes of individuals ≥\u200960\xa0years of age presenting to the emergency department with a clinical diagnosis of ARI.ResultsOf 276 individuals in the study, 40 had proven viral infection and 52 proven bacterial infection, but 184 patients with clinically adjudicated ARI (67%) remained without a proven microbial etiology despite extensive clinical (and expanded research) workup. Patients who were older, had multiple comorbidities, or who had proven bacterial infection were more likely to require hospital and ICU admission. We identified a novel model based on 11 demographic and clinical variables that were significant risk factors for ICU admission or mortality in elderly subjects with all-cause ARI. As comparators, a modified PORT score was found to correlate more closely with all-cause ARI severity than a modified CURB-65 score (r, 0.54, 0.39). Interestingly, modified Jackson symptom scores were found to inversely correlate with severity (r, −\u20090.34) but show potential for differentiating viral and bacterial etiologies.ConclusionsModified PORT, CURB-65, Jackson symptom scores, and a novel ARI scoring tool presented herein all offer predictive ability for all-cause ARI in elderly subjects. Such broadly applicable scoring metrics have the potential to assist in treatment and triage decisions at the point of care.