A Drought Adaptation Management System for Groundwater Resources Based on Combined Drought Index and Vulnerability Analysis

Abstract

Water scarcity is one of the largest global risks in terms of potential impact over the next decade as it affects every continent is manifested by partial or no satisfaction of expressed demand, economic competition for water quantity or quality, disputes between users, irreversible depletion of groundwater, and negative impacts on the environment. Jordanian water crises are exacerbating all of the time due to increased water demands derived from high population growth, sudden fluxes of refugees, economic development, and increased frequency of drought events. These forces stress the urgent need to develop drought adaptation planning based on vulnerability mapping correlated to prolonged weather events. The objective of this research is thus to generate a drought vulnerability map with an emphasis on the severity and probability of drought occurrence, and to propose adaption measures based on groundwater sector impact chain analysis by incorporating numerical scorings for exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacities at groundwater basin and Jordanian district levels. Drought impacts on groundwater basins were investigated based on measurements of severity and probability of drought occurrence, and drought exposure over the whole country computed by means of a combined drought index (CDI) that included the precipitation drought index, temperature drought index, and vegetation drought index from 1980 to 2017. Results indicated that drought in Jordan is characterised by a temporal and spatial variability regarding probability and severity. The most prolonged drought events range from mild to moderate, with long periods of exposure that may extend for up to 13 consecutive years. Due to high groundwater basin sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, the groundwater systems in Jordan are fragile and highly vulnerable to drought impacts, being subject to either reduction in quantity and/or deterioration in quality over time. The most vulnerable groundwater basins are the Azraq and Dead Sea regions, while Disi and Yarmouk are also highly vulnerable groundwater basins based on the weak enforcement of transboundary agreements. The proposed drought risk management system based on this research includes proactive and contingency plans enabled by policies and legal frameworks at the national level to ensure sustainable water resilience and governance.