Spatial autocorrelation and co-occurrence of six serovarieties of Leptospira in goat herds of the State of Guanajuato, Mexico.

Abstract

The epidemiological behavior of six Leptospira serovarieties was analyzed by spatial autocorrelation and co-occurrence of leptospirosis, diagnosed in goat herds located in the State of Guanajuato, Mexico. A total of 1650 goat serum samples were analyzed by microscopic agglutination (MAT). True prevalence (Pv) and 95% confidence interval (CI95) were determined. Spatial autocorrelation was calculated using the spdep package, applying the global Moran s I and local Moran s I of Leptospira in Guanajuato. The probabilistic model of co-occurrence was applied using the co-occur package. Seroprevalence in the State was found to be 45.5% (CI95 42.96; 48.06%). The highest registered frequency was for the Icterohemorrhagiae serovar (Pv 34.16%; CI95 31.74, 36.65%), followed by the serovar Hardjo-prajitno (Pv: 6.77%; CI95 5.33, 8.40%). Other serovarieties showed a Pv < 5%. Global spatial autocorrelation, only for the Icterohemorrhagiae serovar, was I > 1, while local Moran s I revealed that five of the six Leptospira serovarieties were spatially correlated. The probabilistic model of co-occurrence detected negative associations between Icterohemorrhagiae and the other serovarieties. The current study demonstrates the presence of Leptospira in goat herds of the State of Guanajuato. The diagnosed serovarieties show an aggregation pattern associated to risk zones and disease-transmitting vectors. Antibody co-occurrence analysis revealed dominance of the Icterohemorrhagiae serovar. A multidisciplinary approach including spatial epidemiology, ecological analyses, and serological vigilance will generate useful information for the prevention and control of leptospirosis in caprine production units.